818
FXUS61 KALY 051037
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 625 AM, AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO POPS WERE DONE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASED ON AN ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS ON SOME DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND
BE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ONE ALONG THE FRONT AND ANOTHER
IN ITS WAKE WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS SEEING THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
EITHER. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
LOCATED WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
BERKSHIRES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 50S AND 60S TODAY
WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL LESSEN A LITTLE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT GUSTS WILL
BE LESS THAN ON MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY
WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST EXCEPT
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CRESTING
OVERHEAD AS LOWS QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST. PATCHY
FROST IS MORE LIKELY IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
WHERE FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH MOST OF THE FORCING
FOCUSED ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A FEW DISTURBANCES LOOK TO
PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE TAF SITES FROM
THE WEST. AN INITIAL BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL NEAR OR CROSS
KALB/KGFL SHORTLY UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z/MON. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF KPSF. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A SECOND LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CROSS KGFL/KALB BETWEEN 17-19Z/MON AND MAY
SURVIVE TO KPSF BETWEEN 18-20Z/MON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME LINGERING FOG AT
KPSF AND VICINITY FOG AT KALB WILL LIFT AS THE FRONT CROSSES
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 13-14Z/MON AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT. WINDS
DECREASE TO 7-12 KT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
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