297
FXUS61 KALY 051728
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS AND WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS FOR TUE
NT/WED AM, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FROST WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
TUE NIGHT, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO OR
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUE
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS. SEVERAL NYS MESONET OBS INDICATED PEAK WIND
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH AS THESE SHOWERS PASSED, AND KALB MEASURED
43 KT (~50 MPH).
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE, DEEPER MIXING SHOULD STILL
ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THROUGH SUNSET,
STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
REGION, NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR FALL IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME WIND OVERNIGHT
WILL LIMIT THE COOLING POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT, WITH MIN TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
AND MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN VALLEYS. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY ON TUESDAY, NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER, SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING
LIGHT BREEZE MAY SLOW DOWN RATE OF FALLING TEMPS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL, EXPECT AT LEAST
AREAS OF FROST TO OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
REMAINS (HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES),
AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THESE
AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZE WARNINGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY (LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A COLD START, A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO SOME AREAS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVE
BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LINGERING
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT THESE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VISIBILITY, AS PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIGHT. AS
A RESULT, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, WITH SCT-BKN CIGS
AROUND 4-6 KFT. HOWEVER, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE FOR ALL SITES. THESE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL STAY BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL AROUND 10 KTS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT FOR ALL SITES
TONIGHT, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 KTS, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR KPSF AND KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FROST.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/33
AVIATION...27
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