958
FXUS61 KALY 061802
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD FROST, THREATENING SENSITIVE VEGETATION THROUGHOUT
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS ONGOING.
2) THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW HAS CERTAINLY MADE IT FEEL LIKE FALL
SO FAR TODAY WITH LATEST OBS REPORTING TEMPERATURES MERELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S. DRY AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THIS SAME
REGIME HAS BEEN ENHANCED THROUGHOUT THE DAY NOT ONLY BY AN
EASTWARD- EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, BUT DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND. THEREFORE, NOT ONLY IS IT
CHILLY, IT'S ALSO RATHER DRY WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. LOW HUMIDITY PAIRED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AMID A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS MADE IT QUITE CRISP FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BEFORE
DAYBREAK TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS TO ENCROACH ON THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER, THESE WILL
LIKELY NOT MOVE IN SOON ENOUGH NOR WILL THEY BE THICK ENOUGH TO
CHALLENGE THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ESPECIALLY SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY CLEAR-CUT SIGN
OF DECOUPLING WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GO CALM. THEREFORE, LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S. FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS ONGOING (I.E.
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY), THIS
WILL POSE A DETRIMENT TO TENDER AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
THEREFORE, FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES WERE MAINTAINED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT CLOSELY ATTENDING TOMORROW MORNING'S WARM FRONT
COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THAT WILL LIKELY BE OUR ONLY BOUT OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
LARGELY DOMINATES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AND WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF RAIN
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
OF THE RESULTING LOW. AT THIS POINT, THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGICAL
CONCERNS RESULTING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS, BY THAT POINT, WE WILL
BE IN NEED OF THE RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL
FEATURE JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME
DEVELOPING MID CLOUDS AROUND 7,000 FT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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