187
FXUS61 KALY 071722
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS TODAY, TOMORROW, AND FRIDAY, AND BUMPED UP
WIND GUSTS TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST, THREATENING SENSITIVE VEGETATION
THROUGHOUT THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS ONGOING.
2) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TODAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 1:55 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1020 MB SFC HIGH SITTING CENTERED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST, BUT
IT'S CLOSE ENOUGH TO HAVE KEPT SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM FOR
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT SO FAR. THIS HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE MID 20S FOR SOME HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS, WITH VALLEYS MAINLY IN THE 30S AT THIS TIME. SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERS AREAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS BEFORE THESE CLOUDS ARRIVE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE. ACCORDINGLY,
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TONIGHT, WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS REMAINING IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TODAY WARMS BACK INTO THE 60S UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO BECOME BREEZY (GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE) THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NEAR JAMES BAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE WARMER, MAINLY IN THE 40S, SO
NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR FROST. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT OVERHEAD THURSDAY, SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90 IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO BTV FOR
THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL AGAIN BE
BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-
LEVEL DRY ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY. WITH THE SFC
HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT, EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO DROP INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD AND LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IT SHOULD BE A VERY NICE FALL DAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST
AS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
IN THE GULF TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE TIMING.
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE 00Z GFS
THAT BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, PROBABILITY FOR ANY HYDRO ISSUES LOOKS VERY LOW WITH NBM
PROBS FOR >1" OF RAIN UNDER 15% AREA WIDE AND PROBABILITY FOR
>2" UNDER 5% AREA WIDE. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE GOING ON 1-2
WEEKS SINCE THE LAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO
ANY RAIN WE RECEIVE WILL BE MUCH-NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE TUG HILL AND
CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND
8-10 KFT BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5-10
KTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR KGFL, WITH LOWERING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
WILL MENTION A PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY BRIEF
SHOWERS (MOSTLY DUE TO VISIBILITY). OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 5 KFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS ONCE AGAIN. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR KALB AND KPSF.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAIN SCT-BKN AROUND 5
KFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK VERY BRIEF AND WIDELY SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE, SO WON'T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
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