003
FXUS61 KALY 071832
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
232 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LARGELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DESPITE A SERIES OF
FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE JAMES BAY IS CURRENTLY LIFTING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK, IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS A
BAND OF CLOUDS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AS THIS IS A
VERY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
AND IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THIS INITIAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, THE ENSUING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO FORCE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS
AND TACONICS, AGAIN AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO OVERCOME LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT RESULTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
APPRECIABLE.
CYCLONIC FLOW BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW COULD FAVOR LINGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW, BUT ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BRIEFLY NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, THOUGH THE
STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. COURTESY OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW, STILL WITH BREEZY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AND ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION CEASES. BY SATURDAY, WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY A FEW DEGREES, MAKING
IT THE PERFECT DAY FOR FALL ACTIVITIES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. AT
THIS TIME, THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN SOME AREAS
SEEING RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE DURATION AND AMOUNTS
ARE UNCERTAIN. THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DRIVING THOSE OUTCOMES
ARE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM- TO LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES. THAT SAID, THERE
IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY IN FLOODING IMPACTS AS A RESULT OF THE
RAINFALL WE RECEIVE FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST NBM 24 HR QMD
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN RANGE FROM ABOUT 10-40%
ACROSS OUR AREA. CONSIDERING WE ARE IN NEED OF RAIN, AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE BY SUNDAY, EVEN AN INCH WOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE FLOODING ACROSS ANY PART OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MOST AREAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A BAND OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION OVER THE TUG HILL AND
CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND
8-10 KFT BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5-10
KTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED AND THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR KGFL, WITH LOWERING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
WILL MENTION A PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY BRIEF
SHOWERS (MOSTLY DUE TO VISIBILITY). OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 5 KFT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS ONCE AGAIN. SOME
GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY FOR KALB AND KPSF.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAIN SCT-BKN AROUND 5
KFT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK VERY BRIEF AND WIDELY SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE, SO WON'T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page