443
FXUS61 KALY 072314
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO NO NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE MADE THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LARGELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DESPITE A SERIES OF
FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE JAMES BAY IS CURRENTLY LIFTING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK, IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS A
BAND OF CLOUDS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AS THIS IS A
VERY MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
AND IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THIS INITIAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, THE ENSUING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO FORCE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD DRIFT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SOUTHERN GREENS
AND TACONICS, AGAIN AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO OVERCOME LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT RESULTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
APPRECIABLE.
CYCLONIC FLOW BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW COULD FAVOR LINGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TOMORROW, BUT ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BRIEFLY NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, THOUGH THE
STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT MIXING WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. COURTESY OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DROP BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW, STILL WITH BREEZY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AND ALL LINGERING PRECIPITATION CEASES. BY SATURDAY, WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY A FEW DEGREES, MAKING
IT THE PERFECT DAY FOR FALL ACTIVITIES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL, POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDWEST. AT
THIS TIME, THERE CONTINUES TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN SOME AREAS
SEEING RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE DURATION AND AMOUNTS
ARE UNCERTAIN. THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE DRIVING THOSE OUTCOMES
ARE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE MEDIUM- TO LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES. THAT SAID, THERE
IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY IN FLOODING IMPACTS AS A RESULT OF THE
RAINFALL WE RECEIVE FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST NBM 24 HR QMD
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN RANGE FROM ABOUT 10-40%
ACROSS OUR AREA. CONSIDERING WE ARE IN NEED OF RAIN, AND
CERTAINLY WILL BE BY SUNDAY, EVEN AN INCH WOULD NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE FLOODING ACROSS ANY PART OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRIDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SOME LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS)
DEVELOPING AT KPSF AROUND 12Z/THU, AND SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
BRIEF SHOWERS AT KGFL BETWEEN 05Z-09Z/THU. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT KGFL, KALB AND KPSF, HOWEVER OVERALL
IMPACTS LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20 KT POSSIBLE AT KALB. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KT
FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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