740
FXUS61 KALY 081047
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 6:45 AM, SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DECREASED ACROSS THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THIS MORNING, LEADING TO GUSTY
WINDS. OTHER FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING DEW POINTS EACH
OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:10 AM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS UPPER
LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY DUE
TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
AND A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE WESTERLY UPSLOPE WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE
LIFT. IT WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO
20-30 KT, STRONGEST WHERE FLOW IS CHANNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, THROUGH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
WE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP WINDS QUITE A BIT FROM THE NBM IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.
SHOWER CHANCES GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE/UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
TOMORROW OVER THE ADKS/SOUTHERN GREENS AS WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE LIGHT, WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
WILL STILL SEE BREEZY W/NW WINDS, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT,
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ALREADY ENDED THERE. THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE, SO WE SHOULD SEE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO
CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL FALL
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
OUR REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE
RUNNING INTO UPPER RIDGING AND THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HAVE
OUR ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-90. GIVEN VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE GOING ON CLOSE TO
2 WEEKS WITHOUT APPRECIABLE RAIN), ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE
VERY BENEFICIAL. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1" CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM <10% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 30% NEAR I-84,
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR >2" UNDER 5% AREA-WIDE. THEREFORE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAIN DESPITE ITS
TROPICAL ORIGINS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM W/NW TO
E/SE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME TUE/WED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO
THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AS OF 6:45 AM EDT AND EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND AT GFL
THIS MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. HAVE
REMOVED VCSH FROM THE OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH JUST FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
DEVELOPMENT AT GFL TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH THE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT FOR A FEW
HOURS, THEN BETWEEN 14-16Z ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF) THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, DROPPING TO
MAINLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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