436
FXUS61 KALY 081800
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI. DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOME VERY SMALL
HAIL MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CORES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRI DUE TO GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES AND ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS FOR CHANNELING SUCH AS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, N. TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT, PROVIDING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUN P.M. INTO SUN NIGHT, THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT
OF POST-T.C. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH/WEST. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE TRACK A WEAKENED
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF
NYC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE (PWAT ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV FROM THE NAEFS),
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED STATE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHEAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE < 1.0". LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR > 1.0" OF RAIN ARE ONLY 15-30% FROM I-90
SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. SO THIS
WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
PRECEDING THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF < 2.0", FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
RAIN SHOULD END MON MORNING, AS THE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM QUICKLY
TRACKS EAST OFF OF THE COAST AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN MON
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUE,
WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR MAY
POTENTIALLY BE USHERED IN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU,
ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES IN,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON WED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT, SPOTTY SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN ONGOING NEAR THE GFL TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
THUS FAR BUT A 22 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSION HAS MITIGATED
ANYTHING REALLY REACHING THE GROUND. A LACK OF MOISTURE HAS ALSO
MITIGATED PRECIPITATION REACHING ANY OTHER TERMINAL AND THE
SAME IS TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z PERIOD THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY NEAR A TERMINAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CURRENT SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS OF 21 TO 31 KT. CLOUDS ARE BY NO
MEANS CONSISTENT IN NATURE WITH ONLY ALB AND GFL SPORTING A
6-6.5 KFT CEILING AND PSF AND POU MERELY REPORTING A FEW GROUP
AROUND 5 KFT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT, AND
WITHIN A DRY AIR-ADVECTING REGIME, CLOUDS WILL LATELY DISSIPATE
AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR A LIGHT BREEZE OF ABOUT 3 TO 5 KT TO PERSIST
BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION, IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION IN AN ALREADY DRY ENVIRONMENT, NO FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE 18Z CYCLE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, THOUGH BY
TOMORROW MORNING A NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THIS
WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING AT LEAST 10 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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