381
FXUS61 KALY 082312
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
712 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE FALL SEASON
THUS FAR FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRI. DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOME VERY SMALL
HAIL MAY OCCUR IN SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CORES. IT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRI DUE TO GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH AT
TIMES AND ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS FOR CHANNELING SUCH AS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, N. TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT, PROVIDING DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUN P.M. INTO SUN NIGHT, THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT
OF POST-T.C. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH/WEST. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE TRACK A WEAKENED
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO JUST SOUTH OF
NYC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE (PWAT ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV FROM THE NAEFS),
FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENED STATE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHEAST. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE < 1.0". LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR > 1.0" OF RAIN ARE ONLY 15-30% FROM I-90
SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. SO THIS
WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. GIVEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
PRECEDING THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF < 2.0", FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE
RAIN SHOULD END MON MORNING, AS THE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM QUICKLY
TRACKS EAST OFF OF THE COAST AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN MON
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUE,
WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR MAY
POTENTIALLY BE USHERED IN AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD RUN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU,
ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES IN,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON WED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SATURDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH, MAINLY OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL, KALB AND
KPSF THROUGH AROUND 02Z-03Z/FRI, HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP VSBYS/CIGS BELOW VFR CATEGORIES.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 8 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN WILL INCREASE TO 8-15 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST FREQUENT GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...24
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