374
FXUS61 KALY 091030
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OTHER THAN LOWERING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A
FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIALLY THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:10 AM EDT...CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR
ARE MAINLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION, WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE DECOUPLED, ALLOWING TEMPS THERE TO DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF THE REST OF THE
REGION, A LIGHT WINDS HAS KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL END
UP ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THANKS TO DEEP BL MIXING AND A RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC HIGH. A WEAK
UPPER IMPULSE MAY LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ADKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VT.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RADIATE INTO THE 30S TO LOW
40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SO
IN COORDINATION WITH WFO BTV WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST
ADVISORIES FOR THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. AFTER A COLD START TO THE
DAY SATURDAY, TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. WITH THE SFC HIGH FIRMLY OVERHEAD AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE, IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY, MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
FALL DAY. WHILE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT, OUR PROXIMITY TO THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
GOING BELOW NBM TEMPS WITH 30S (SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRES, UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY)TO 40S (REST OF THE REGION).
KEY MESSAGE 2...SUNDAY, REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST, WITH
THE WEAKENED SFC LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. PWATS RISE TO 1.25-1.5", WHILE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION,
FGEN/CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TRACK, WITH MEASURABLE RAIN NOW EXPECTED ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE
ADKS. TIMING HAS ALSO SPED UP SLIGHTLY, SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE RAIN
WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND END EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.75"
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE NEAR I-
84. THEREFORE, WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY HAVE ALSO
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER (HIGHS 50S TO MID 60S) GIVEN EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE RAIN. MONDAY HAS ALSO NOW TRENDED DRIER, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
FROM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
CROSS OUR REGION. THE FRONT MAY BRING WITH IT SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, A CHILLY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AS DOES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL AVERAGE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH BOTH NIGHTS BEING NOTICEABLY CHILLY AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
30S TO LOW 40S FOR MANY AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST HAS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT GFL OVERNIGHT,
EXPECTING THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR AS OF 6:30 AM
EDT. WILL SEE FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY, WITH
SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR GFL THIS
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP AT GFL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS.
WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE W/SW, THEN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KT CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT GFL/POU, BUT REMAIN AT 5-10 KT FROM THE W/SW AT ALB/PSF
THROUGH AROUND 06Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THERE
ALSO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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