201
FXUS61 KALY 101014
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
2) A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRY AIR MASS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:30 MA EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A BROAD 1026 MB SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE W/SW,
ALTHOUGH SOME THIN, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TC ISAIAS ARE
STREAMING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS, WHILE A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADKS EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THE LAKE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP LOW/MID-LEVEL INVERSION SEEN ON
THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING. LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING
WINDS SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, SO EVEN THE AREAS THAT
ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SHOULD
STILL SEEP TEMPS DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH SOME
UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS SOME FROST WHERE TEMPS DROP NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING, FROST IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO PATCHY TO
WARRANT FROST ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD AND STRENGTHENS BENEATH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE. AFTER A COOL START TO
THE DAY, HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S WITH CALM WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY. TONIGHT, THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO
DROP QUITE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF OR
EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS SUNRISE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. NBM SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE RADIATIVE COOLING
TREND, SO ONLY MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. LOWS AGAIN RANGE FROM THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ISAIAS HAS MAD LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
A HURRICANE THIS EVENING. ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARDS INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.3 -
1.5" TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE BEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED. SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK IS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. HOWEVER, A BAND OF MID-
LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THE REGION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW THE PRECIP SHIELD TO OVERSPREAD OUR
ENTIRE CWA, WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES, WITH A HALF TO 1" OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA. EVEN
IF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCUR LIKE THE NAM SUGGESTS,
FLOODING IS STILL NOT EXPECTED GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS WILL BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR
THE REGION.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW QUICKLY RAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION TOMORROW, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SEE RAIN DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING, WITH RAIN REACHING THE I-90
CORRIDOR BY MID- AFTERNOON AND FINALLY OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
BY SUNSET. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
GENERALLY ENDING BY 12Z MONDAY. MONDAY NOW LOOKS MAINLY DRY,
WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS LIKELY END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
WE MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO A WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH, HELPING PUSH IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO OUR REGION THE
DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK, BUT IF IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH
(WHICH IS THE CURRENT CONSENSUS), THEN THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD AGAIN. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN
ALOFT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS IT DID A DAY OR TWO
AGO. SO, WHILE IT WILL COOL DOWN WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, THIS COLD SHOT DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS NOTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WE MAY BEGIN TO WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR WEST
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
AT GFL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BUT OTHERWISE ALL TERMINALS WILL
SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ALB/POU/PSF REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD, BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AT GFL IF THERE ARE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT 5
KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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