280
FXUS61 KALY 110549
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT, FROST IS NOT FAVORED TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BRIEFLY LOWER BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAIAS, WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING NO FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS RAINFALL RATES
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AND A MORE STEADY AND NORMAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE SEEN DRY CONDITIONS THE
LAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES
TO 1 INCH. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF A MODERATE STEADY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY,
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SLIDES INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MEDIUM (GREATER THAN 50%) TO
HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH AND WITH ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS, THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS INGREDIENTS ARE NOT STRONGLY FAVORED TO
MATERIALIZE AT THIS FORECAST TIME. LATEST PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY HAVE A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24
HOURS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL AND A DREARY TUESDAY
IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLDER
AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION RANGE BETWEEN 62 AND 64 DEGREES, WHERE THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60. IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT POU/PSF AS OF
1:45 AM EDT, ALTHOUGH SOME FOG/MIST HAS DEVELOPED AT GFL AND EVEN
ALB. EXPECTING THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THICKER HIGH CLOUDS NOW
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SO, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TO MID-MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. SHOWERS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING AT POU, LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALB/PSF, AND
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT GFL. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TREND DOWN TO
MVFR AS SHOWERS BECOME A STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN.
CONDITIONS FURTHER DETERIORATE TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN AND IFR CONDITONS CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AT
ALB/GFL/PSF, BUT SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR AT POU IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INCREASE TO 5-
10 KT FROM THE S/SE THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
WINDS EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING STILL AT 5-
10 KT, AND EVENTUALLY THE N/NE THIS EVENING AT AROUND 4-8 KT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BORDERLINE LLWS CONCERNS AT POU/PSF THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASING TO 30-35 KT FROM THE EAST, BUT SFC
WINDS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE LLWS OUT OF
THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY
SHRA...SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SLIGHT
CHC TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...35
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