031
FXUS61 KALY 111055
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 5:30 AM EDT, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN ALREADY
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE CATSKILLS. THIS IS A COUPLE HOURS
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY TO SPEED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
[PREVIOUS] DUE TO SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY, THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A
BENEFICIAL RAIN, WITH NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:35 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1032 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE COD, WITH THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS TRACKING OVER TENNESSEE. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW HAS ALLOWED WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AND
THICKENING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE SFC HIGH, WINDS
ARE CALM ACROSS THE REGION, SO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WE ABLE TO RADIATE INTO THE MID 30S WHERE THE
CLOUDS WERE THINNER EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THICKENING
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES LIKELY HOLD STEADY
OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE REMNANT, WEAKENED SFC LOW OF ISAIAS TRACKS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS IT APPROACHES, MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE (PWATS GETTING UP TO 1.5", HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS).
THE BEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL FORCING (WARM ADVECTION) REMAINS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA NEAR I-84, BUT GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN FURTHER NORTH
NEAR I-90, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTICYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP THE PRECIP
SHIELD EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND
CAMS, RAIN BEGINS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE RAIN
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN ADKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN VT. RAIN BECOMES STEADY SHORTLY AFTER IT BEGINS,
FALLING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AT TIMES. GIVEN LACK OF
ANY REAL INSTABILITY, RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE LESS, WITH SOME LOCALIZED 1-1.5" AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NEAR I-84 AND IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO SOME SE
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. GIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
HASN'T SEEN APPRECIABLE RAIN IN OVER 10 DAYS THIS WILL BE A VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES LOOK TOO LOW TO
CAUSE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COOL (HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60) DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, COMING TO
AN END BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL
WEATHER DAY WITH A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. RISING HEIGHTS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH IS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL HELP LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS SFC LOW
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR ARE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
YESTERDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, POPS HAVE
DECREASED FOR AREAS OF I-90 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
I-90 MAY ALSO NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF THIS FORECAST TREND CONTINUES, AS MID 70S
ARE NOT OFF THE TABLE THERE. FURTHER NORTH TREND WITH THE TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW WOULD ALSO PUT MORE OF OUR REGION INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH SHOWALTER VALUES <0 TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HAVE
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO COVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA. DESPITE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES, THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY REMAINING MAINLY ELEVATED AND
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY, COOLER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY THURSDAY LOOK BREEZY AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOMEWHERE NEAR (LIKELY
WEST) OF OUR REGION. THIS WOULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF WARMUP DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORM AND ITS EXACT TRACK. ANOTHER, MORE IMPRESSIVE COLD
SHOT APPEARS LIKELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM NEXT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...RAIN IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO START
TIME OF RAIN WAS MOVED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. RAIN
INITIALLY STARTS OFF LIGHT WITH VFR TO MVFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS, BUT
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY IFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH SOME MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MIST AND CONTINUE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
FROM THE S/SE THIS MORNING, BACKING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY THE N/NE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, STILL AT 5-10 KT. HAVE ALSO
ADDED LLWS AT POU THIS EVENING WITH E/SE WINDS OF 35-40 KT AT 2000
FT. PSF MAY GET CLOSE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF LLWS
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page