144
FXUS61 KALY 111917
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND LAKE GEORGE-
SARATOGA REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS BEFORE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES. FOR
EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO A STEADY NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED OFF
MORE AS A SHOWERY NATURE, A MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS MOVING
THROUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM, BECOMING
ISOLATED LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY.
AS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE
DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AND STEADY LIGHT TO A NORMAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING, THERE ARE
NO FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH SLIDES INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MEDIUM (GREATER THAN 50%) TO HIGH CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
TO MOVE THROUGH AND WITH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS, THERE COULD BE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
ALBANY, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT STRONGLY FAVORED TO MATERIALIZE AT THIS
FORECAST TIME. LATEST PROBABILISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
RAINFALL AND A DREARY TUESDAY IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLDER
AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD RANGE
IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF OCTOBER ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION RANGE BETWEEN 62
AND 64 DEGREES, WHERE THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH ABOVE 60. IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE OUR FIRST TAP INTO COLDER AIR WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE IN THE 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON TO FLY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KGFL
EXPECTED TO START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT
RAIN. HOWEVER, KGFL WILL SEE THE RAIN MOVE IN WITHIN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD. CIGS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VIS ALSO STAYING CONSISTENTLY MVFR TO IFR INTO
THIS EVENING. HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING
WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE, WITH CIGS AND
VIS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 11Z-12Z MONDAY. LOW CIGS
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE VIS STARTS TO IMPROVE
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT, WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR AFTER 12Z.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THAT TIME. KPOU
COULD EXPERIENCE FROM LLWS THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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