148
FXUS61 KALY 112342
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS/QPF FOR THE EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NW
CT TO 1.25-1.75" RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BASED
ON THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN, AS SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1-1.5"
IN THESE AREAS PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL BEFORE A BRIEF LULL. ALSO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND LAKE GEORGE-
SARATOGA REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS BEFORE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES. FOR
EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO A STEADY NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. UPDATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.75
INCHES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS PRECIPITATION HAS
STARTED OFF MORE AS A SHOWERY NATURE, A MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL
IS MOVING THROUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM,
BECOMING ISOLATED LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
ALBANY. AS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED THE LAST FOUR TO
FIVE DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND STEADY LIGHT TO A NORMAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING,
THERE ARE NO FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH SLIDES INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
BRINGS ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MEDIUM (GREATER THAN 50%) TO HIGH CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
TO MOVE THROUGH AND WITH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS, THERE COULD BE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
ALBANY, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT STRONGLY FAVORED TO MATERIALIZE AT THIS
FORECAST TIME. LATEST PROBABILISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY HAVE A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
RAINFALL AND A DREARY TUESDAY IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST
FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLDER
AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD RANGE
IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF OCTOBER ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION RANGE BETWEEN 62
AND 64 DEGREES, WHERE THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE
TO REACH ABOVE 60. IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE OUR FIRST TAP INTO COLDER AIR WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD RANGE IN THE 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR THE FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON TO FLY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...RAIN SHIELD NORTH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ISAIAS HAS EXPANDED NORTH INTO KGFL THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS
MAINLY MVFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE VSBYS AND CIGS.
WE ARE EXPECTING ALL THE TAF SITES TO GET INTO THE DEEPER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD CIGS/VSBYS GETTING DOWN
INTO THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE. SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE AT KPSF AFTER 08Z/MON, BUT WE KEPT AT LOW IFR FOR
NOW. THE RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
BETWEEN 05Z-08Z/MON WITH WIDESPREAD CIGS IN THE IFR AND
POTENTIALLY VSBYS IN THE 1-3SM RANGE. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO WRAP INTO THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH CIGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY
RISING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 12Z-16Z/MON. KPSF MAY HAVE
LINGERING IFR CIGS THE LONGEST IN THE MORNING, AND MVFR CIGS IN
THE 1.5-3 KFT AGL MAY PERSIST IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO KALB/KGFL/KPOU AROUND 18Z/MON
WITH CIGS 3.5-5 KFT AGL, AND THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LLWS WAS KEPT IN AT KPOU UNTIL 03Z/MON, AS THE SFC WINDS ARE
AROUND 5 KT AND THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE 30-35 KT FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-10 KT IN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/05
AVIATION...15
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