156
FXUS61 KALY 121026
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
FOR TODAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTED. STILL, IT WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD TO START THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, BUT NO FLOODING OR SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
2) WINDY AND NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGEST TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM, BUT TEMPS WILL STILL
PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH VALLEY
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHEST POPS LOOK
TO BE FOR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
ALTHOUGH TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH. THE
50% OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF 1" OR MORE IS LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES, BUT MUCH LOWER
PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED PRECIP AND
MANAGEABLE RAINFALL RATES, NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MID-WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED. MEAN SBCAPE OFF THE
NBM IS GENERALLY UNDER 200 J/JG ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH THE HIGHER
VALUES WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ML/AI GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANY
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD STAY WELL OF THE
REGION, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER IN PLACE, BUT
ANY STORMS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL
INTO THE 60S. SOME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 70S,
DEPENDING ON IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS.
IT LOOKS TO STAY MILD INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL, BUT A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CROSSING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BUT THE
REAL CHILLY AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING
OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING
DOWN TO AROUND -8 TO -10 C ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. 00Z GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE
ABOUT 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE
PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. AT THIS
POINT, ITS HARD TO STAY HOW MUCH (IF AT ALL) ANY ACCUMULATION
WOULD OCCUR, BUT THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE A
POSSIBILITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH THE EXPECTED CHILLY
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, MIST AND
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE FOR SOME SITES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THEY HAVE BEEN
MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR KALB DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DRIZZLE.
AFTER SUNRISE, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH ANY
LINGERING MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THE LOW
STRATUS WILL START TO LIFT FOR LATER THIS MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY FOR ALL SITES. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR IN
THE 3500-5000 FT RANGE, ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY STILL LINGER AT
THE HIGH TERRAIN SITE OF KPSF. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
5-10 KTS TODAY.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL RETURN ON TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN TO KGFL AND KALB AS WELL. THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER
TONIGHT AT KGFL, BUT THE MOST SITES MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO GET
INTO ANY SHOWERS UNTIL TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR
TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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