848
FXUS61 KALY 131027
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS NUDGED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS EAST INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR TODAY,
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS FAIRLY LOW, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG STORMS TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
2) WINDY AND NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, LAKE AMERICA AND ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LOOK
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TODAY, WHICH WILL
HELP INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
BASED OFF THE LATEST 3KM HRRR, HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES FOR LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR, THERE IS QUESTION ABOUT HOW MUCH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND CAMS SUGGEST THAT SBCAPE WILL BE
UNDER 500 J/KG. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE WILL BE LATE TODAY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS, BUT THE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY ONLY BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG STORMS MAY
BE ONGOING ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY TODAY, THEY WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD INTO OUR AREA. ML/AI SEVERE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AS WELL. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES EXTENT INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW THREAT FOR TODAY.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DOWNPOURS WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL ALSO
APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH TOTAL RAINFALL MAY EXCEED
AN INCH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS (NBM PROBABILITY OF 1" IS 50-80%
HERE), IT'S MUCH LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. 2"
PROBABILITY IS ONLY AS HIGH AS ABOUT 30% OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. 00Z SPC HREF SHOWS
HOURLY RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A HALF INCH AS WELL.
WHILE SOME PONDING CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON ROADWAYS, TOTAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES APPEAR MANAGEABLE AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN TEMPS TODAY, WHICH IS DUE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE BISECTING THE AREA. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND WILL BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S TO
NEAR 60. MEANWHILE, FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE SUN AND
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S IN VALLEY AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. ANOTHER DAY OF MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME COOLER WEATHER STARTS BUILDING TOWARDS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY, THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS BY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GEFS CONTINUES VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW RUNS, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -8 TO -10
C, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. IT STILL SHOWS
500 HPA HEIGHTS AROUND 2 STD BELOW NORMAL, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
FAIRLY BRIEF, AS THE TROUGH WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. AS A
RESULT, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. AFTER A COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT, BUT WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME
LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT,
ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE SOME SNOWFLAKES DO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, TOTAL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINOR AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THESE WILL BE CLOSE TO
KGFL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR/IFR
AT KGFL DUE TO THE PASSING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH THEY
WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS MVFR BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
MEANWHILE, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR AT KPOU AND
MVFR AT KALB/KPSF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THESE SITES, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE NEAR KALB, BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 KTS FOR ALL SITES.
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION
SOME STEADIER SHOWERS AS EARLY AS 16Z AT KGFL, BUT THE BETTER
CHANCE IS LIKELY AFTER 20Z FOR KGFL, KALB AND KPSF. WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND SOME BRIEF IFR CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
KPOU SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AVOID MOST OF THE SHOWERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 KTS, BUT WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02Z-05Z, BUT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO RISE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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