244
FXUS61 KALY 132339
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS KEPT THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS TODAY. INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS WELL
AS LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH
TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-90 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW.
2) AFTER A RAINY FRIDAY, WINDY AND NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD DOWN
FOLIATED TREES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOORS OBJECTS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HI-RES MODELS LOOK TO HAVE THE BOUNDARY REACHING AND
STOPPING NEAR I-90. THE COLD SECTOR WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF I-90
WITH CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) AND
60S (VALLEYS) WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I-90 WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERTURES IN THE UPPER 60S
(TERRAIN) AND MID 70S (VALLEYS) AND WILL SEE MORE BREAKS OF SUN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP TO CONTINUE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT KENX RADAR, ALONG WITH CURRENT CAMS GUIDANCE SHOW A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING OUT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGION, BEFORE SHIFTING INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES LATER THIS EVENING.
WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 50+ KT OF SHEAR,
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG
AVAILABLE, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE ACROSS MORE WESTERN AREAS OF
THE ADKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, AND LOOKS TO BE AVAILABLE ONLY NEAR OR
JUST AFTER SUNSET. THIS TIMING OF THE INGREDIENTS AND THE LACK OF
DAYTIME HEATING FROM WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND WEAKEN THEM AS THEY
APPROACH OUR AREA. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
DOES EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS EXISTS, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW THREAT FOR TODAY.
EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONCERNS IS ALSO
LOW. PWATS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR AREAS I-90 NORTH AND WEST.
TOTAL EXPECTED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE 0.75 TO 1" WITH LOCALIZED
UP TO 1.5" IN THE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 75-95% CHANCE FOR 1" OR
GREATER AND A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2" OR GREATER FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF I-90. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MUCH LOWER FOR THE REST
OF THE REGION WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR 0.5" OR GREATER FOR AREAS I-90
SOUTH. 12Z SPC HREF SHOWS HOURLY RATES SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 0.5" AS
WELL. WHILE SOME PONDING OF WATER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON ROADWAYS AND
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, TOTAL RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES APPEAR
BENEFICIAL FOR THESE AREAS.
ANOTHER DAY OF MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW BEFORE SOME
COOLER WEATHER STARTS BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A
PLEASANT MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT COOL FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF BREAK SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE MANAGEABLE WITH NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 60-80% CHANCE FOR 1" OR GREATER IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND A 20-30% CHANCE OF 1" OR GREATER IN
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS BY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TURN CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BELOW FREEZING AND
VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -10 C, WHICH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. AS A RESULT, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH 40S FOR
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER A COLD SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL (61 F).
IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY LATE FALL DAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET COULD
MIX DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A
40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS 40-45 MPH WHICH COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
RANGE AND KNOCK DOWN FOLIATED TREES AND BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED
OUTDOORS OBJECTS.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LAKE
ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME SNOWFLAKES DO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, TOTAL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINOR AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/THU...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL AND
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF KALB/KPSF. ONE ADDITIONAL BATCH WILL
CROSS OVER KGFL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
REDUCTIONS TO IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WHICH HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN
A TEMPO. SHOWERS LOOK TO END BY 4Z/WED. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT KALB/KPOU AND MVFR AT KPSF,
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT KPSF CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MIXED VFR/MVFR CIGS LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF WITH KPSF
HAVING THE MOST PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS DUE TO MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW.
KPOU MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME SITES BETWEEN 12-16Z/WED BUT COVERAGE
AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WIND 5-10 KT TONIGHT WILL BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND
A PASSING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
20-25 KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...33
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