721
FXUS61 KALY 141006
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
606 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TREND OF BOOSTING WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A RAINY FRIDAY, WINDY AND NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTS
WHICH COULD DOWN FOLIATED TREES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
OUTDOOR OBJECTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
2) GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
THE FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK OFF THE
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. 01Z/14 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1"
RAINFALL ENDING 2 AM SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY 60-85% ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90, AND 30-60% TO THE SOUTH, SUGGESTING A SOAKING
RAINFALL FOR MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90. SIMILAR PROBS
FOR >2" RAINFALL DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD ARE LOWER,
GENERALLY 10-30% FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF I-90, AND LESS
THAN 10% ELSEWHERE. THIS RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH FLOODING NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TURN CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING AND VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO
AROUND -6 TO -10 C, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
AS A RESULT, DAYTIME TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. AFTER A
COLD SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT, BUT
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY
LATE FALL DAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID STRONG PRESSURE
RISES COULD MIX DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION,
BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY RANGE
AND KNOCK DOWN FOLIATED TREES AND BLOW AROUND ANY UNSECURED
OUTDOORS OBJECTS.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LAKE
ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME SNOWFLAKES DO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, TOTAL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINOR AT THIS
TIME. ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS
WITH 50S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY LINGERING FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/BREAK UP SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING AT KGFL, KALB AND ESPECIALLY KPSF
BEFORE LIFTING INTO A VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER AT KPSF INTO MID AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, VFR CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
AT KPSF, BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (<10%) THAT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPS AT KGFL
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CIGS LIFT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
DEVELOPING BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z/WED AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KT, WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 38 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/24
AVIATION...24
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