219
FXUS61 KALY 142347
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
747 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE ADKS TODAY AS WELL AS BOOSTED WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED STRONG WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADKS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A RAINY FRIDAY, WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS COULD DOWN FOLIATED TREES AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADKS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW TO OUR EAST, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE ADKS,
HOWEVER KENX RADAR SHOWS MOST HAVE PASSED TO OUR WEST ALREADY.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CURRENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A CONTINUOUS LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS COVERING MUCH OF THE
REGION. AREAS SOUTH IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY COULD SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS CLOUDY AND IN THE 50S AND
60S. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
CHANNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. GRADUAL CLEARING
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
TRACKING OVERHEAD BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S, TOMORROW WILL BE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S (TERRAIN) AND LOW 60S (VALLEYS), ALONG
WITH A LIGHT BREEZE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ALONG WITH A PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY, TRACKING OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS STARTING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAINING STEADY THROUGHOUT MOST
OF FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER COULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH BEFORE TAPERING OFF
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW PWATS BEING IN THE 1 TO 1.5" RANGE
+1 TO 2" STDEV ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 75TH
PERCENTILE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2" ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF I-90 IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS, SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS, AND THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS, AND THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN
AREAS I-90 SOUTH. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 60 KT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF STORMS
SINCE CAMS AND LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW LOCATIONS OF GREATEST MUCAPE
(600 J/KG) IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, AND LOCATIONS OF STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES (>6.5 C/KM) AND BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH THIS CHANCE,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.
NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
1.5" AND A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2" FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-90 AND A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1.5" SOUTH OF I-90.
WITH THESE TOTALS FALLING OVER A LONGER DURATION, THIS LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING OF WATER IN THE
TYPICAL PLACES OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. FRIDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) AND UPPER 60S TO APPROACHING
THE LOW 70S (VALLEYS).
TEMPERATURES TURN CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FALLING BELOW FREEZING
AND VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -8 TO -10 C,
WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. AS A RESULT, DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ON SATURDAY,
WITH 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY LATE FALL DAY.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMID A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COULD HELP MIX DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS ON
SATURDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
REGION, BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY RANGE AND KNOCK DOWN FOLIATED TREES AND BLOW AROUND ANY
UNSECURED OUTDOORS OBJECTS.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SOME LAKE
ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN, NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME SNOWFLAKES DO LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, TOTAL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINOR AT THIS
TIME. ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A
COLD AND CALMER SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT, BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIR MASS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS AT
KALB/KPSF WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
DECREASE GIVING WAY TO RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KGFL THOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR CIGS TO BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KPOU.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
5-10 KT ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 36 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/24
AVIATION...33
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