231
FXUS61 KALY 160621
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
221 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, ALL OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOST
OF SOUTHERN VT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
NORTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF GREENE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. CONTINUED GUSTY AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
BANDS OF RAIN PASSING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR TOWARD AND SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, CAPITAL/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO
SOUTHERN VT. RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25-0.50"/HOUR COULD LEAD TO
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES OVERHEAD AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND WITHIN SOME
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. LATEST REFS SUGGEST SOME GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES BY AND
WEAKENS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SOME SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN DEVELOP. LATEST HREFS AND
REFS SUGGEST SB CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG DEVELOPING FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW
0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT AMID THIS INSTABILITY,
PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A LOW TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD, NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXPANDING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
GREENE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-35 MPH, PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS MIXING
DEEPENS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
PARTIALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE SOME
COATINGS TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES COULD EVEN OCCUR ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, THE BERKSHIRES, AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH MAINLY 40S FOR VALLEY REGIONS.
COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS, WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ("FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES) WILL BE IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND 30S IN VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. A FEW DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR THROUGH
MID MORNING, SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH KPOU MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF DOWNPOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 20Z-24Z/FRIDAY. WILL MENTION PROB30
FOR IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH +SHRA AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF, BUT
DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY WILL MENTION +TSRA AT KPOU.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL SITES
STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING, AS A SOUTHERLY JET OF 40-45 KT AT
2000 FT AGL MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. THE LLWS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KT, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 8-15
KT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, WITH GUSTS OF 20-32 KT DEVELOPING AT
KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...24/07
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