510
FXUS61 KALY 161804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, ALL OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND MOST
OF SOUTHERN VT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
NORTH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF GREENE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. CONTINUED GUSTY AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
BANDS OF RAIN PASSING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG FORCING AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO OCCUR TOWARD AND SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, CAPITAL/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO
SOUTHERN VT. RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25-0.50"/HOUR COULD LEAD TO
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES OVERHEAD AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND WITHIN SOME
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. LATEST REFS SUGGEST SOME GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES BY AND
WEAKENS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SOME SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN DEVELOP. LATEST HREFS AND
REFS SUGGEST SB CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG DEVELOPING FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW
0-6 KM SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 50-60 KT AMID THIS INSTABILITY,
PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
A LOW TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS
EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD, NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN VT, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXPANDING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
GREENE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
25-35 MPH, PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS MIXING
DEEPENS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
PARTIALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE SOME
COATINGS TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES COULD EVEN OCCUR ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, THE BERKSHIRES, AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SUCH
AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH MAINLY 40S FOR VALLEY REGIONS.
COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS, WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ("FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES) WILL BE IN THE 20S/LOWER 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND 30S IN VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...CONDITIONS VARY AMONGST THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN A
LARGELY MVFR STRATUS DECK, FORCING ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LATEST
SCANS OF THE ENX RADAR INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT BREAKING APART
OF WHAT WAS FORMERLY A PRE-COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH LITTLE
THREAT TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL DOMAINS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE (SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS) AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 3 TO 11 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT ALB AND PSF.
WHILE EASTWARD-TRANSLATING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL, BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING HEIGHTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE FURTHER ENCROACHMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD REINFORCE THE HOLES AND FORCE THE RETURN TO CONSISTENT
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS
CLOSER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO FILL INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE LATEST TRENDS IN
THE GUIDANCE AND RADAR SCANS, CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME LOWER IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AT ALB, POU, AND PSF. THESE SITES WERE
THEREFORE GIVEN PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WHILE GFL HAS A TEMPO GIVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN BRIEF SHOWERS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN-MOST GREAT
LAKE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, FAIRLY SWIFT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CEILING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL EXCEPT PSF WHICH COULD HANG ON TO AN MVFR
CEILING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, TAKING ON A WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT BY THE END OF THE 18Z CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...12
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