056
FXUS61 KALY 161832
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
232 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTH- CENTRAL TACONICS, THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, SOUTH- CENTRAL BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTY, CT. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) INCLUDES THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOST
OF THE GLENS FALL LAKE GEORGE REGION.
RETOOLED HOURLY POPS AND WEATHER LATE THIS PM INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING THE WESTERN DACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS
AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS. ALSO BLENDED IN SOME NBM90 WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS, AND A FEW
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
2) CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
3) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH
FROM WEST- CENTRAL NY AND PA THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND W-CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED ACROSS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/SCHOHARIE VALLEY EARLIER BUT STRATUS HAS
INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT IS SETTING UP FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION/BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
DUE TO SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FORMING THAT MAY
BRING SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LATEST HREFS/REFS HAS LIMITED MEAN SBCAPES OF 100-250 J/KG
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND NW CT. THE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES 40-60+ KT. THE CAMS SOUNDINGS FROM THE 3-KM
HRRR/ARW-WRF SHOW 800 HPA WINDS INCREASING TO 45-50 KT WITH THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS VERY STRONG. A BROKEN LINE OR STRONGLY-
FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE CAMS WITH
THE THREAT LOOKING THE GREATEST FROM ABOUT HUDSON, NY TO THE
I-84 CORRIDOR. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY UPDRAFTS WILL BE TALL
ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THESE WINDS ALOFT AND TRANSLATE THEM TO THE
SFC. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME GUSTY
SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH GUSTS 30-50 MPH WHICH
COULD BLOW AROUND LOOSELY UNSECURED OBJECTS, AND BRING DOWN
SOME FOLIATED LARGE TREE LIMBS. THE THE THREAT WINDOW LOOKS LIKE
3-7 PM BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TONIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRISK/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS OCCUR, AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FUNNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING, SOME UPSLOPE RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES
DUE TO UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME MULTI-BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS INDICATE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES
WILL BE 1 TO 2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL. THE ACTUAL H850 TEMPS FALL
TO -6C TO -9C FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
TO 0C TO -6C READINGS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WIND CHILL
TEMPS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS WHEN COMBINING THE WINDS WITH THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH MAINLY 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MID/UPPER 20S
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE EARLY WINTER.
UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL END
IN THE LATE MORNING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING. THE
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHILLY TEMPS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW READINGS
NEAR 50F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH DUE TO THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOME DEEPER MIXING. WE INCREASED GUSTS SLIGHTLY
BLENDING IN THE LATEST NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR
PROBS FOR GUSTS >35 MPH ARE LOW FROM 2 AM SAT TO 2 AM SUN, AS
THEY ARE ONLY 20-40% OVER THE NORTHERN TACONICS/NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. GUSTS > 40 MPH ARE LESS THAN
15%, SO NO WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS/"FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
WINDS SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER PA AND NY. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER, BUT A
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND NEARBY NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AFTER A COLD START INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S, BUT TEMPS MODERATE TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60F ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK, AS WE MONITOR A
COASTAL LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MID WEEK
(TUE- WED TIME FRAME).
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...CONDITIONS VARY AMONGST THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN A
LARGELY MVFR STRATUS DECK, FORCING ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LATEST
SCANS OF THE ENX RADAR INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT BREAKING APART
OF WHAT WAS FORMERLY A PRE-COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH LITTLE
THREAT TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL DOMAINS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE (SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS) AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 3 TO 11 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT ALB AND PSF.
WHILE EASTWARD-TRANSLATING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL, BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING HEIGHTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE FURTHER ENCROACHMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD REINFORCE THE HOLES AND FORCE THE RETURN TO CONSISTENT
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS
CLOSER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO FILL INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE LATEST TRENDS IN
THE GUIDANCE AND RADAR SCANS, CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME LOWER IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AT ALB, POU, AND PSF. THESE SITES WERE
THEREFORE GIVEN PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WHILE GFL HAS A TEMPO GIVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN BRIEF SHOWERS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN-MOST GREAT
LAKE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, FAIRLY SWIFT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CEILING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL EXCEPT PSF WHICH COULD HANG ON TO AN MVFR
CEILING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, TAKING ON A WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT BY THE END OF THE 18Z CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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