426
FXUS61 KALY 162316
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #687 FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #687 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ULSTER,
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRISK/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS OCCUR, AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FUNNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING, SOME UPSLOPE RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES
DUE TO UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME MULTI-BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS INDICATE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL. THE ACTUAL H850 TEMPS FALL TO
-6C TO -9C FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE ADIRONDACKS TO 0C
TO -6C READINGS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WIND CHILL
TEMPS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS WHEN COMBINING THE WINDS WITH THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH MAINLY 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MID/UPPER 20S
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE EARLY WINTER.
UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL END
IN THE LATE MORNING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING. THE
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHILLY TEMPS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW READINGS
NEAR 50F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH DUE TO THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOME DEEPER MIXING. WE INCREASED GUSTS SLIGHTLY
BLENDING IN THE LATEST NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR
PROBS FOR GUSTS >35 MPH ARE LOW FROM 2 AM SAT TO 2 AM SUN, AS
THEY ARE ONLY 20-40% OVER THE NORTHERN TACONICS/NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. GUSTS > 40 MPH ARE LESS THAN
15%, SO NO WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS/"FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
WINDS SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER PA AND NY. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER, BUT A
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND NEARBY NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AFTER A COLD START INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S, BUT TEMPS MODERATE TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60F ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK, AS WE MONITOR A
POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MID
WEEK (TUE- WED TIME FRAME).
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...CONDITIONS VARY AMONGST THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN A
LARGELY MVFR STRATUS DECK, FORCING ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LATEST
SCANS OF THE ENX RADAR INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT BREAKING APART
OF WHAT WAS FORMERLY A PRE-COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH LITTLE
THREAT TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL DOMAINS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE (SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS) AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 3 TO 11 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT ALB AND PSF.
WHILE EASTWARD-TRANSLATING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL, BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING HEIGHTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE FURTHER ENCROACHMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD REINFORCE THE HOLES AND FORCE THE RETURN TO CONSISTENT
MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS
CLOSER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO FILL INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD IMPACT TERMINALS BETWEEN 19-00Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE LATEST TRENDS IN
THE GUIDANCE AND RADAR SCANS, CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME LOWER IN THE
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS AT ALB, POU, AND PSF. THESE SITES WERE
THEREFORE GIVEN PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WHILE GFL HAS A TEMPO GIVEN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN BRIEF SHOWERS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE EASTERN-MOST GREAT
LAKE. ONCE THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, FAIRLY SWIFT IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CEILING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL EXCEPT PSF WHICH COULD HANG ON TO AN MVFR
CEILING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, TAKING ON A WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT BY THE END OF THE 18Z CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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