549
FXUS61 KALY 162323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #687 FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #687 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ULSTER,
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BRISK/BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS OCCUR, AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH FUNNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING, SOME UPSLOPE RAIN TO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF
INCH MAY OCCUR. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES
DUE TO UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME MULTI-BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST NAEFS INDICATE H850 TEMP ANOMALIES WILL
BE 1 TO 2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL. THE ACTUAL H850 TEMPS FALL TO
-6C TO -9C FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE ADIRONDACKS TO 0C
TO -6C READINGS SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE I-84 CORRIDOR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. WIND CHILL
TEMPS OR "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPS WHEN COMBINING THE WINDS WITH THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH MAINLY 30S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME MID/UPPER 20S
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE EARLY WINTER.
UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL END
IN THE LATE MORNING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING. THE
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH CHILLY TEMPS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW READINGS
NEAR 50F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH DUE TO THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOME DEEPER MIXING. WE INCREASED GUSTS SLIGHTLY
BLENDING IN THE LATEST NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. THE LATEST NBM 24-HR
PROBS FOR GUSTS >35 MPH ARE LOW FROM 2 AM SAT TO 2 AM SUN, AS
THEY ARE ONLY 20-40% OVER THE NORTHERN TACONICS/NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. GUSTS > 40 MPH ARE LESS THAN
15%, SO NO WIND ADVISORIES EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS/"FEELS-LIKE"
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
WINDS SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER PA AND NY. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30F. THE GROWING SEASON IS OVER, BUT A
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND NEARBY NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING AFTER A COLD START INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S, BUT TEMPS MODERATE TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60F ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID WEEK, AS WE MONITOR A
POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MID
WEEK (TUE- WED TIME FRAME).
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR SOME -SHRA
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AT KPSF THROUGH AROUND 01Z. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS LINGERING AT KPSF
TONIGHT DUE TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 12-16 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING, LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...07
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