953
FXUS61 KALY 171022
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FROM
LAKE EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE, MID LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST, EXITING THE REGION AROUND
MIDDAY. AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LAKE
MOISTURE/EFFECT WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS,
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES IN VALLEY
AREAS, AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST IN VALLEYS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN BRISK
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID/UPPER 40S IN VALLEY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY
30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. COMBINED WITH THE BRISK WIND, WIND
CHILL ("FEELS-LIKE") TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S IN VALLEYS,
AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT AMID A DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A
FEW TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN
MOST AREAS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SUNDAY, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DESPITE OCCASIONAL CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT AGL, WHICH MAY LINGER
THROUGH 17Z/SAT. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS OF 8-15 KT AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST BUT DECREASE TO 5-10 KT TOWARD
SUNSET, AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM TOWARD AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/15
AVIATION...24/07
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