637
FXUS61 KALY 181027
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED TEMPS THROUGH
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING BY A FEW/SEVERAL DEGREES. ALSO LOWERED
FORECAST MIN TEMPS FOR SUN NT/MON AM BASED ON EXPECTATION FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
2) DESPITE A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A COLD START, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY, GENERALLY 5-15 MPH.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO
MEANDER OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORS NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FOR OUR
REGION, THIS PORTENDS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. FAR SE AREAS COULD
SEE OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY AROUND THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER, HOWEVER
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE, WHICH MOST OF
THE PHYSICAL MODEL/AI ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SUGGEST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BEST
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE AT KGFL,
KALB AND KPSF MAINLY AFTER 08Z/MON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM THROUGH MID MORNING,
TRENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 4-8 KT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE
AGAIN AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...24
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