172
FXUS61 KALY 182318
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, SO HAVE
INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG NEAR BODIES OF WATER THAT ARE
SHELTERED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DESPITE A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND ATLANTIC
CANADA. THIS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALLOWING FOR
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL STAY IN PLACE, ALLOWING
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH IT WON'T BE
QUITE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN. SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN SOME
SHELTERED VALLEYS NEAR BODIES OF WATER, BUT FOG WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED DUE TO THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION WILL DEPOSIT AS FROST AS
OPPOSED TO HELP DEVELOPING FOG.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SIT
AND SPIN NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND DELMARVA, BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOK TO STAY IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OPERATIONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE
(INCLUDING AI MODELS) AND ENSEMBLES KEEP ANY PRECIP SOUTH OF THE
REGION CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IF THE STORM TRACKS
CLOSE ENOUGH, SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME
IS FOR WINDS TO STAY FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN VALLEY AREAS. WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, IT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW IFR RADIATIONAL
MIST/FOG AT KGFL WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND WE
PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN FROM 08Z-12Z/MON. WE KEPT SOME SHALLOW
MIST/FOG /MIFG/ AS A POTENTIAL FOR KALB BETWEEN 10Z-13Z/MON WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. KPOU/KPSF WERE KEPT VFR WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG FORMATION DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVELS. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TO CALM
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARY IN DIRECTIONS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 KT OR LESS FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...15
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