875
FXUS61 KALY 201024
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON GIVEN
CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE A NOR'EASTER MEANDERS WELL
OFFSHORE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEK AND EVEN
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN. WITH OUR ~1030-1035HPA HIGH CENTERED IN WESTERN QUEBEC
TODAY AND A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER WELL OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL
TIGHTEN ENOUGH TODAY TO PROMOTE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
HUDSON VALLEY AS WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE VALLEY WITH A 50 TO 75%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 20MPH UNTIL 21-23 UTC WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE, WE WILL ENJOY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY AIR ADVECTION
WITH PWATS LIKELY DROPPING TOWARDS 0.25" THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST TOMORROW, REDUCING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LEADING TO WEAKER WINDS WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
FROM OUR NOR'EASTER SPREADING OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY, A MOISTURE
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA,
HELPING DIRECT OUR NOR'EASTER FURTHER NORTH AND EAST BEFORE
IT EXITS OUT TO SEA. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON FAR WEST THE SFC LOW TRACKS, THERE
IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE TO NOT POSE
ANY DIRECT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT PRECIP BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. IN
FACT, THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED
30MPH IN THE 24HR PERIOD FROM 2AM THURS TO 2AM FRI. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
CONTINUING OUR SUNNY AND DRY STRETCH WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH GREATER THAN A 75% CHANCE FOR FRI NIGHT LOWS
TO FALL BELOW 35 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS 3-5 KT EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO 5 - 11KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KT
(STRONGEST AT PSF/ALB/GFL) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THEN,
NORTHERLY GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, BUT WE REMAIN SUSTAINED
5-7 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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