090
FXUS61 KALY 211026
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN DRY AIR ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SUNNY SKIES TODAY MIX WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS, MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AS OUR OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN A BIT BREEZY IN
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH GUSTS REACHING 15-25KTS
GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NOR'EASTER AND
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. CIRRUS CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH AS NOT TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES TURN CLEAR/SUNNY WITH WINDS
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COOL/VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES TREND SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR UNDER 32 DEGREES BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND REMAIN PRECIPITATION-
FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (UNDER 25%)
FOR LESS THAN A 0.10" OF RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES MIX
WITH INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AT POU, PSF AND ALB. INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VIS FROM FOG AT GFL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARDS THE
RESPECTIVE DEW POINT. OTHERWISE, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME SUSTAINED 5-9KTS BY 14-15 KTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 15-18KTS AT POU. WINDS
DIMINISH BY 22-23 UTC AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS REMAINS SUSTAINED AROUND 4-5KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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