437
FXUS61 KALY 211710
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
GIVEN DRY AIR ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST MAINTAINING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SUNNY SKIES TODAY MIX WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS, MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH/EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AS OUR OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER
SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN A BIT BREEZY IN
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH GUSTS REACHING 15-25KTS
GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NOR'EASTER AND
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. CIRRUS CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT
SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH AS NOT TO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES TURN CLEAR/SUNNY WITH WINDS
WEAKENING BY FRIDAY THANKS TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD ALONG WITH COOL/VERY DRY AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES TREND SEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR UNDER 32 DEGREES BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND REMAIN PRECIPITATION-
FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (UNDER 25%)
FOR LESS THAN A 0.10" OF RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, FLYING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
FROM THE NEARBY COASTAL NOR'EASTER ARE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
NO AVIATION IMPACT. SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS FOR TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR ALL SITES. SKIES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WILL BE
RATHER COLD AND DRY OVERNIGHT, SO THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT MUCH
WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING. LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF FOG NEAR KGFL TOWARDS DAYBREAK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME, SO WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE TAF FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL.
ON THURSDAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR WITH A FAIRLY
CLEAR SKY AND NO PRECIPITATION. JUST SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING
CIRRUS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY. DURING DAYTIME MIXING,
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR
ALL SITES. SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT
KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page