395
FXUS61 KALY 221722
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
INCREASED WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS MIXED IN THE WAKE OF A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AS JOSEPHINE
EXITS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY MID
TO LATE MORNING GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT INBETWEEN EXITING JOSEPHINE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME
SUSTAINED 5-12KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS (STRONGEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER) AS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALLOWS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SFC. CLOUDS INCREASE
A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS REMAINING BREEZY (GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS) INTO THIS EVENING.
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN
THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH/EAST OUT OF CANADA WILL ALLOW SUNNY
SKIES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH COOL AND NOTABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION (PWATS LIKELY FALL UNDER 0.25") RESULTING IN
SEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE 50S.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES FALLING NEAR OR UNDER 30 DEGREES BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW ZONAL FLOW TO ENSUE, ADVECTING A MILDER AIR
MASS INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. OUR
DRY STRETCH LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS NEAR OR LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 1:20 PM, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH/BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-25 KT (STRONGEST AT POU/PSF).
GUSTS DIMINISH BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS AT POU/PSF MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED LLWS AT POU/PSF TONIGHT AS
WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 35-40 KT FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER 30-35 KT WINDS FROM THE N/NE EXPECTED AT 2000 FT AT
ALB/GFL, SO THESE TERMINALS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF LLWS
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...35
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