614
FXUS61 KALY 221801
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS, DUE TO THE MIXING WITH THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
DUE TO THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
AND SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE.
MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED FRI AND SAT NIGHTS BLENDING IN COLDER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NBM. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS BELOW NBM
FRI/SAT WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NY WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON. A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
COLD FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AND SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC HAS ALLOWED FOR NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, AS THE SFC
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PERSIST
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST, AS THE
SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
WITH THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE
30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW, AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
PWATS WILL RUN 1-2 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL IN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SHALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
AND SPOTTY UPPER 50S FOR FRI. THE SFC HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC, NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS
FRI NIGHT. WE WENT BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR LOWS GOING CLOSER
TO THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MODIFYING TO SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH LIGHT WINDS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN SAT NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
POTENTIALLY WED INTO THU WITH A SHORT-WAVE AND A WARM FRONT, BUT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE/ENSEMBLE/NBM
GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 1:20 PM, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY. A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH/BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT
OTHERWISE SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. N/NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-25 KT (STRONGEST AT POU/PSF).
GUSTS DIMINISH BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 5-10 KT FROM THE N/NE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS AT POU/PSF MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED LLWS AT POU/PSF TONIGHT AS
WINDS AT 2000 FT INCREASE TO 35-40 KT FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY
WEAKER 30-35 KT WINDS FROM THE N/NE EXPECTED AT 2000 FT AT
ALB/GFL, SO THESE TERMINALS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF LLWS
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...35
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