985
FXUS61 KALY 232224
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TREND TO LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS ON THE
WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
ADDED SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING AND THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1035 HPA CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, NY AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SET-UP WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AS SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN OVER THE TOP OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOW-LEVELS ARE
VERY DRY WITH PWATS CLOSE TO 0.25", WHICH ARE 1-2 STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON TH LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S TO AROUND 30F (CLOSE TO A MAV/MET/NBM BLEND). THE COLDEST
READINGS MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS NORTH OF ALBANY. THE THIN CIRRUS SHOULD DIMINISH
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT
WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH 50S TO AROUND 60F IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO CLOSE
THE WEEKEND WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FOLDING OVER INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE SFC HIGH VERY SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT TO START THE
WEEK, AS THE H500 RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY SURPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP MON MORNING WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS LOOK MORE
SEASONABLE. A MOSITURE-STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHES MON WITH
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE MON, BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST BASED ON THE NBM FOR NOW. THE COLD
FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION, AS A
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AGAIN FOR TUE-WED WITH TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THU INTO
FRI WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WARM AND COLD FRONTS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST BASED ON SOME OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE/NBM GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION LOOKS
LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SUNDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH JUST A
PERIOD OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS AT MANY TAF SITES LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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