819
FXUS61 KALY 251750
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY MIST/FOG WAS ADDED TO THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH THE MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TO OPEN THE WEEK. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF WEAKENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND INITIALLY CLEAR
SKIES BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, AS WE TRIED TO BLEND THE
NBM AND MAVMOS GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY MIST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE
HUDSON/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN, AS THE THIS MORNING, AND NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR SOUTHERN VT. TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT
WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY 15 TO
20 MPH, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW IN THE MID 50S TO MID/UPPER
60S. A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION
MON NIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH LIGHTER WINDS, AS ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS ARE LIKELY TUE NIGHT WITH COLD TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY BY THE
MID WEEK, AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, AS TEMPS TREND TO
SEASONABLE READINGS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WED
NIGHT INTO THU, AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED PREDOMINATELY WITH CLOUDS
MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER MAINLY MOISTURE STARVED DRY COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THU NIGHT THRU FRI. TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE
THE WEEK. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE LOCATIONS
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO OPEN
DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CLOSE OCTOBER. MANY
LOCATIONS BE CLOSE TO TWO WEEKS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE WHETHER ANY VALLEY FOG DRIFTS INTO SOME OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FOG MENTIONS AT KALB/KGFL
THOUGH WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT MAY BE MORE W/SW
VERSUS N/NE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WHICH MAY DRIFT ANY FOG AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL, ESPECIALLY AT KALB. VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KT OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN IN VARIOUS
DIRECTIONS MONDAY MORNING AT 4-8 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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