171
FXUS61 KALY 261742
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, A DRY AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. HAVE LOWERED DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
DURING DAYTIME MIXING. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE CROSSING OF THIS BOUNDARY,
WITH JUST A BAND OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY
BRIEFLY BE A GUSTY BREEZE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY INTO
TONIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER
IN PLACE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE
20S. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD, GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BELOW THE NBM MEAN, WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MIN TEMPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE ONLY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE IMMEDIATE WATERWAYS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD, SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A LITTLE MILDER FOR THURSDAY, WITH VALLEY
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED AND FORCING ISN'T THE BEST
EITHER. MOST PLACES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. WHILE IT SHOULD
BE MILD AGAIN INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS OF RIGHT NOW, NO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT
THIS IS STILL FAR OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST RATHER
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID,
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LARGELY UNDER 10 KT. SOME
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CHILLINGS COULD DEVELOP PARTICULARLY AT ALB
AND GFL OVERNIGHT WITH FEW TO SCT GROUPS ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD
BE SOME BRIEF LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS AT GFL AND POSSIBLY AT PSF, BUT
WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 3.5 TO 4 KFT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT
CHANGE. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY, BUT SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST, AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING
UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...12
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