747
FXUS64 KAMA 150439
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1039 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
-AFTER WARM TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
-COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE NEEDED WITH
SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE FORECAST.
-LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
AN ELONGATED H500 POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE PANHANDLES REGION IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MAIN JET STREAK, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT
IS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND
UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE EAST.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
LATER IN THE WEEK, LATEST 14/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A
PERTURBATION MOVING EASTS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THEN INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC-H500 SW FLOW WITH
INCREASING GRADIENT BY FRIDAY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH,
ADIABATIC COMPRESSION FROM THE NM HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FLOW WILL AID IN WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH EVEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REACHING THE LOWER AND
MID 60S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST TRENDS SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO SUNDAY MAY DROP
BY AROUND 40 DEGREES OR SO.
THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INITIAL SURGE OF H850-700 COLD AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER SURGE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. H850 VALUES BOTTOM OUT TO -17C TO -20C
BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. IN PARTICULAR, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
MAYBE NEEDED STARING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WHERE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST -5F ARE EXPECTED CWA WIDE.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY, IT COULD BE WIDESPREAD 30S BY SATURDAY AND 20S BY
SUNDAY AFTER THE FIRST SURGE OF STRONG CAA ENTERS THE REGION. WITH
THIS FIRST SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
DICHOTOMY, DEPENDENT ON THE MOISTURE CONTENT, WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NW PANHANDLES, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. A MORE INTERESTING SET UP MAY OCCUR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, GIVEN CERTAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS
CAN ALIGN. MORE DETAILS TO COME ON THAT SET UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STARTING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO ILLUSTRATE THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WHERE
EVEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT MAY
GET AS LOW AS -20F IN SOME AREAS, BASED OFF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
DATA OUTPUTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL UPDATE NUMERICAL
TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO BE A
VERY COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH IMPACTS DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES BEING PROBABLE.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10KTS AFTER 18Z. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 21 48 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 19 50 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 17 48 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 21 51 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 19 50 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 19 49 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 23 51 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 16 49 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 17 50 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 19 49 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 21 49 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 21 48 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 22 53 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 23 52 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89
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