401
FXUS64 KAMA 160425
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1025 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
-ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY BRING WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES DROPS THAT WILL HOLD INTO THE NEW WEEK.
-SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY.
BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LATEST SATELLITE WAS STILL SEE SNOW
PACK HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, DRY
WEATHER COUPLED WITH THE PRESENT WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY SEE
THIS LEFTOVER SNOW SHRINK EVEN FURTHER. STILL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME REFREEZING ON LESS TRAVELED ROADWAYS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR THIS DRY PATTERN TO HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE SLOWLY
RISING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE NEXT TWO DAY.
SCOLERI
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
LATEST MODEL AGREEMENT OPENS THE FIRST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD ON RATHER DRY AND WARM NOTE WITH TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THE
50S AND 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE
WEST COAST HIGH BREAKS DOWN THANKS TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM
THE NORTH AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH. ONCE BROKEN DOWN, MODEL
AGREEMENT SEES THESE TWO FEATURE COMBINE AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD FOR
WHAT IS EXPECTED BE A VERY COLD BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
PANHANDLES. AS STANDS, MODEL EXPECT THIS BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER TO
ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A VERY SHARP COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE INITIAL PUSH, THE FRONT WILL
LOOK TO SQUEEZE ANY PRESENT MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN WHAT
IS LIKELY TO BE A PURE SNOW EVENT. CURRENTLY, BEST CHANCES ARE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW SHARP THIS FRONT REALLY
IS AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS TRULY PRESENT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
OUR FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS GET OVER THE INCH MARK WITH CHANCES OF
SEEING FLURRIES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, THE
CONCERNS WILL SHIFT TO THE EXPECTED ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT. CURRENTLY MODEL AGREEMENT IS HOLDING
STRONG TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE DROP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE 50 TO 60S PLUMMETING CLEAR INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S BY
SATURDAY.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND IN TO THE NEW WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY HOLDS STRONG AND KEEPS FLOW NORTHERLY. WITH THIS HOLDING
PATTERN IN PLACE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO KEEP GETTING COLDER
EACH PASSING DAY WITH LATEST AGREEMENT SEEING TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY BOTTOM OUT MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO
20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO. IN THE
MEANTIME, MODEL AGREEMENT EXPECTS A SERIES OF TROUGH TO FLOW DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES, WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ALIVE CLEAR
THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALBEIT WITH AMOUNTS TRENDING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE OF THINGS. REGARDLESS, THE ADDED PRESENCE OF SNOW
CHANCES MAY AID IN FURTHER DECREASING BOTH THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE AND THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IN TURN, COULD
CREATE A NEED FOR COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD.
FOR NOW, WE HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY DUE THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS DEAL WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM OVER CORRECTING FOR ITS CURRENT WARM BIAS.
SCOLERI
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT
18Z THEN SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AROUND 15KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME WS AT KDHT AND KGUY
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 25 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 24 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 23 58 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 25 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 23 59 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 23 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 27 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 21 56 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 23 58 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 22 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 26 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 26 56 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 27 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 28 59 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89
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