581
FXUS64 KAMA 161136
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
536 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE DROPS THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
WE'RE GOING TO WARM UP NICELY TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES,
FINALLY MAKING OUR BIGGEST DENTS IN MELTING THE REMAINING SNOW
PACK. H500 RIDGING IS AMPLIFYING ATOP THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
WARMER 850MB TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES TO HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
TODAY, ALTHOUGH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, BENEATH A 40-50KT LLJ RIGHT OFF THE
DECK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL BECOME MORE COMMON, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MIXING DOWN BY FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RATHER POOR AS A RESULT, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL SERVE TO FURTHER IMPROVE DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW, WITH MORE LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY
FRIDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AS THE INITIAL PUSH
OF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WON'T DRASTICALLY DROP AT
FIRST, BUT SOME LINGERING GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH COULD MAKE IT FEEL
RELATIVELY COLDER THAN THE DAY BEGAN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS, ANOTHER MINOR DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF STRONGER COLD AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
INTRUDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS
FEATURE, PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. ONE
OF THE MAIN FACTORS THAT WILL DICTATE SNOW AMOUNTS IS THE DEPTH OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND STRENGTH OF LIFT. SOME OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE, LED BY THE NAM AND GFS, HAVE BEGUN DEPICTING A
DEEPER SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 MB, ALONG WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS.
OVERALL ENSEMBLE DATA HAS SUGGESTED THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THIS EVENT, GENERALLY FAVORING ONLY 1-2
INCHES OR LESS. BUT IF THESE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WERE TO
COME TO FRUITION, IT IS FEASIBLE THAT HEAVIER BANDING COULD EXIST
TO PRODUCE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TOTALS (~10% CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES). MODEL AGREEMENT IS STILL RATHER
LOW FOR THIS SYSTEM, AND THE PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVIER BANDING WILL
NEED TO COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. DRY AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER SUNDAY, ENDING THE MAJORITY OF SNOW CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET. LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT
ANOTHER SUBTLE IMPULSE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS
OVERHEAD, BRINGING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY, THIS WAS EXPECTED BE THE SYSTEM WITH A HIGHER
CEILING, BUT MODELS HAVE SINCE INCREASED IN DISAGREEMENT.
ONE THING WE CAN COUNT ON THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS THE
PRESENCE OF ARCTIC AIR. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO STAY IN THE
20S AND 30S, MORE THAN LIKELY NOT CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AT THE EARLIEST. FRIGID DAYS LEAVE NOT
MUCH ROOM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REACH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EACH MORNING SUN-WED, INCLUDING SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DIPPING DOWN IN THE NEGATIVES BY TUE MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD, EVEN JUST 5-15 MPH NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO -15 RANGE TUE MORNING.
EVEN FOR JANUARY, THIS IS ANOMALOUSLY COLD, AND MAY NEED COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS TO EMPHASIZE THE IMPORTANCE OF LIMITING TIME
OUTSIDE AND PREPARING ACCORDINGLY.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 10-15
KTS, BUT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LLWS
COULD BE IN PLACE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT POTENTIAL PRESENCE
OF STRONGER GUSTS PREVENTS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTIONS
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
HARREL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 56 35 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 57 31 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 57 27 55 17 / 0 0 0 10
BORGER TX 59 36 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 58 34 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 56 34 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 59 36 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 56 28 57 19 / 0 0 0 10
GUYMON OK 58 29 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 56 32 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 56 35 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 57 35 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 60 35 66 25 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 59 33 68 27 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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