731
FXUS64 KAMA 162002
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
202 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
- SNOW IS FAVORED IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AROUND 0.5" TO 1" CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS A 10-
30% CHANCE FOR SNOW TOTALS TO REACH OR EXCEED 1.5" ALONG I-40 WEST
OF AMARILLO.
- FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S, WHILE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 12 DEGREES TO
AROUND 0 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AS A
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT, AND OVER 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE'LL
SEE FOR A WEEK (MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE LONG-TERM SECTION). A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY TRY TO REBOUND SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND AN ALREADY IN-PLACE COLD AIRMASS, SUSPECT THAT MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THUS, HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY USING MOS GUIDANCE.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW IS FAVORED TO BEGIN IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY AND SOME
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS SOUTH WITH
SOME HINTS OF WEAKENING. THE ECMWF, EPS MEAN, CANADIAN, AND GEPS
MEAN DIG THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS/GEFS. AS A
RESULT, THESE MODELS GENERALLY KEEPS THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS MORE
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE, THE GFS/GEFS
KEEPS THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES AND EVEN
EXTENDING IT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. ADDITIONALLY, THIS FURTHER
EAST SOLUTION OF THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE ISENTROPIC
ENHANCEMENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
SHOWS UP IN A HANDFUL OF THE GEFS MEMBERS, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
GUIDANCE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERN TROUGH DOESN'T HAVE THAT.
KEEPING IN MIND A SNOW RATIO OF AROUND 15:1 TO 20:1 IN THIS CASE,
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5" TO AROUND 0.9" IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, NBM DOES GIVE A 10-30% CHANCE FOR SNOW TO REACH
OR EXCEED 2" ALONG I-40 WEST OF AMARILLO, AS WELL AS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR SW OK PANHANDLE. WILL OPT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO SUNDAY, AND DESPITE AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES SEEING SOME SUN, THE NBM IS CERTAINLY ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE (DUE TO LONGER-TERM BIAS CORRECTION). HAVE
ONCE AGAIN OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, AND IT IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NOT LOW
ENOUGH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES... GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW COVER. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 5-15 MPH LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND -8
DEGREES.
MOST OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MONDAY, AND BY LATER ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE
SIMILAR BIASES WITH THE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM CONTINUE WITH
THIS MONDAY-TUESDAY; GFS/GEFS IS THE FURTHER EAST SOLUTION WHILE THE
ECMWF/EPS AND CANADIAN/GEPS ARE FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER, THIS TIME,
THE LATTER SOLUTION FAVORS MORE SNOWFALL WHILE THE FORMER SOLUTION
FAVORS LESS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED. WON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COVER. ADDITIONALLY, AS IT CURRENTLY
STANDS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AROUND 0 DEGREES TO AROUND -
13 DEGREES... BUT AGAIN, DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER IT COULD BE LOWER.
THUS, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FAVORED TO RISE ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
FREEZING, IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT
WILL KEEP A DISTANT EYE ON THAT AS THIS IS TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG-RANGE PERIOD.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KTS LATER FRIDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 35 58 23 31 / 0 0 0 10
BEAVER OK 31 56 20 31 / 0 0 0 10
BOISE CITY OK 26 54 17 25 / 0 0 10 50
BORGER TX 36 60 24 30 / 0 0 0 10
BOYS RANCH TX 33 59 23 31 / 0 0 0 20
CANYON TX 34 58 22 33 / 0 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 36 63 25 35 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 28 56 19 28 / 0 0 10 40
GUYMON OK 28 55 19 27 / 0 0 10 40
HEREFORD TX 33 59 22 34 / 0 0 0 20
LIPSCOMB TX 35 57 22 32 / 0 0 0 10
PAMPA TX 36 58 22 29 / 0 0 0 10
SHAMROCK TX 35 66 25 35 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 34 68 26 37 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page