498
FXUS64 KAMA 171711
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1111 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE CONTINUED THIS MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES DUE TO A LLJ UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS. THE
12Z KAMA SOUNDING DOES SHOW THIS QUITE WELL, WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS HAVE KEPT
THE LOWER LEVELS WELL MIXED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED LARGELY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, HAVE
INCREASED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
MORNING REMAINS ON TRACK.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
- IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL. LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY STARTING SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST EACH MORNING WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HAVING THE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE LAST WARM DAY UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS IN
STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND IS AIDED BY A WARMER START TO
THIS MORNING. A 40 TO 50 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS WELL MIXED THIS MORNING SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNLESS WINDS DECREASE NEAR
SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW WILL TREK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY
BE BREEZY TO GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL SURGE FROM
THE FIRST OF MANY COLD FRONTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL LAG BEHIND SO
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY FOR LONGER.
THE WELL ADVERTISED BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
DIG SOUTH ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL OPEN UP THE ENTIRE PLAINS TO A
PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THE INITIAL
SURGE OF COLDER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH MOVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BRING THE COLDER AIR, PVA AT THE BASE OF THE H500 TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT AMPLE SATURATION FROM APPROXIMATELY H600 DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, INCLUDING IN THE ALL IMPORTANT DGZ, SO AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FROM
THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS SHOWING THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITY AT H700 (WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE TOP OF THE DGZ BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS) STAYING
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM. THAT MEANS THAT THE BETTER LIFT IN THE DGZ, THUS THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES, ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STAY JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA. EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES TO REACH THE WESTERN, AND MORE
PARTICULARLY, THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, DURING THIS SNOW
EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE LIFT MAY ALSO REACH
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, BUT THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN MORE
INCONSISTENT AND ALSO OCCURS WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME DRY
AIR MAY BE MOVING IN AROUND H800. FOR HIGHER TOTALS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, IT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THIS AREA OF LIFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND/OR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRODUCING LOCALIZED LIFT FOR AMARILLO WEST
ALONG I-40. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT OVERALL THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THAT POINT
WILL GREATLY DECREASE. FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT, THE CENTRAL AND WEST
HAVE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE NORTHWEST
HAS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES (20-40 PERCENT) FOR REACHING 2 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS,
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF, THE
PANHANDLES. THANKFULLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG, BUT WIND
CHILL VALUES MAY STAY BELOW 20 FOR MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE THAT ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY DUE TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER,
ANY SNOW PACK, AND THE CONTINUED PUSH OF COLD AIR. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO NEAR MINUS TEN WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE THE START OF MULTIPLE
MORNINGS HAVING THESE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
BROAD SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS OPEN TO ARCTIC AIR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
IMPACTS REACHING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. H850
TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STAY AROUND
MINUS 5 CELSIUS OR COLDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY 4 DAYS BEFORE THERE
IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL TO GET CLOSE TO ABOVE FREEZING. IN ADDITION
TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD ENOUGH MOISTURE BE IN PLACE OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL SNOW
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS AT THE VERY
MINIMUM FLURRIES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS A SECONDARY PUSH OF
COLD AIR THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH SUCH A STRONG COLD AIR PUSH. WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE MORE
IMPACTS THAN THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SECONDARY COLD AIR PUSH ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, FORECAST H850 TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DOWN CLOSE TO
MINUS 15 ON TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING VERY LIKELY THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE COMING WEEK,
WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IF NOT BELOW
ZERO. THE 16/01Z DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ON THE WARMER END OF ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE SUITE (NOT JUST FOR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT FOR PRETTY MUCH
EVERY DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
DECREASING MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE ARCTIC AIR PUSH
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IN FACT, THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY COLDER THAN 0 FAHRENHEIT ARE UPWARDS
OF 60 TO 75 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND -5 TO 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, IT ONLY WOULD
TAKE A 5 MPH WIND TO BE REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTH AND A 10 MPH WIND WOULD BE PUSHING EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, DEFINITELY BE PREPARED
TO BUNDLE UP IF HEADING OUT IN THE MORNINGS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY, BUT
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK AND SHORT LIVED RIDGE.
THE WARM UP LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THIS LONG TERM FORECAST
GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH GUYMON, AND ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK CURRENTLY, THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 15-20 KTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
15-25 KT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING BUT THEY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TO GUYMON AND
DALHART AROUND 13Z TO 15Z ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
VANDEN BOSCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 23 30 11 27 / 0 20 30 0
BEAVER OK 20 27 8 27 / 0 20 10 0
BOISE CITY OK 18 25 4 24 / 20 60 20 0
BORGER TX 24 31 13 29 / 0 20 30 0
BOYS RANCH TX 23 31 11 29 / 0 30 40 0
CANYON TX 23 32 11 27 / 0 20 30 0
CLARENDON TX 25 34 13 28 / 0 0 20 0
DALHART TX 19 27 5 25 / 10 50 30 0
GUYMON OK 20 26 6 26 / 10 40 10 0
HEREFORD TX 23 34 11 27 / 0 20 40 0
LIPSCOMB TX 23 28 11 27 / 0 10 10 0
PAMPA TX 23 29 11 26 / 0 10 20 0
SHAMROCK TX 25 34 14 30 / 0 0 10 0
WELLINGTON TX 27 35 15 30 / 0 0 10 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ001-006.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52
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