479
FXUS64 KAMA 181721
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES WITH SNOWFALL UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST FOR
THIS AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
- A PROLONGED STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
WILL BEGIN TODAY AND WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ARE
FORECAST EACH MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. THE NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES HAVE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT
THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, LIGHT SNOW HAS FORMED ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND IS STARTING TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN KS. SNOW
IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT LA JUNTA AND LAMAR UP IN COLORADO
AND LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AWAY FROM EVEN REACHING THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY COOLING ACROSS THE
NORTH AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BASE OF A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE BETTER MESOSCALE
LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND MAY HAVE EVEN
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER WEST. FOR LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW REMAINS HIGHER. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE TOTALS LESS THAN AN INCH. TERRAIN
EFFECTS FROM THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS ALONG I-40 WEST OF AMARILLO BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
SCENARIO PANNING OUT REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY SINCE
DRIER AIR WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE IN IN THE MID LEVELS AS SNOW
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS SOUTHERN DEAF
SMITH COUNTY, WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF H700
VERTICAL VELOCITY MAY BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SNOW
COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING. WITH BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS BEING
LOW CONFIDENCE, NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
MADE AT THIS POINT. SNOW WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY, THE FIRST DAY OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS VERY LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
COLDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOWER TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS, WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AS COLD AS
THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE, WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES IF WIND CHILLS DROP
ANY FURTHER. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE VERY COMPARABLE TO TODAY,
REACHING THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO
MONDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THE PANHANDLES,
THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH MOISTURE QUALITY AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE NORTHEAST HAS CONSISTENTLY HAD THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 18/01Z NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED UPWARDS OF
50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THERE
SHOULD BE A MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO MONDAY.
REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR ARE VERY, VERY LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS FORECAST OUT AHEAD OF THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN
BELOW MINUS 15 CELSIUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS, AMBIENT AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DANGEROUS FOR THOSE OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHICH MAKES WAY FOR WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THIS SUBTLE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT LIVED, AS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR BACK TO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THAT TROUGH WILL DIG TO END THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT ALL 3 TERMINALS. LIGHT, POWDERY
SNOW IS OCCURRING AT GUYMON AND DALHART CURRENTLY, AND AMARILLO
WILL SEE THIS SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING AT
ALL 3 TERMINALS.
VANDEN BOSCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 10 27 11 25 / 30 0 0 20
BEAVER OK 7 26 10 21 / 0 0 10 50
BOISE CITY OK 1 25 7 19 / 0 0 0 30
BORGER TX 11 29 13 26 / 10 0 0 30
BOYS RANCH TX 10 29 13 27 / 20 0 10 20
CANYON TX 11 28 12 27 / 30 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 11 28 12 27 / 20 0 0 20
DALHART TX 2 26 8 23 / 10 0 0 20
GUYMON OK 5 25 9 21 / 0 0 0 50
HEREFORD TX 9 28 11 26 / 40 0 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 10 26 13 23 / 0 0 0 40
PAMPA TX 10 26 12 23 / 10 0 0 20
SHAMROCK TX 13 29 12 26 / 10 0 0 20
WELLINGTON TX 14 29 13 27 / 10 0 0 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ001-
006.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52
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