597
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX
PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.
- FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO OR
BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES, WITH MONDAY NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST. COLD-RELATED
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT.
- WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS VERY LOW AT THIS MOMENT, BUT AT
THIS TIME THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES IS THE MOST FAVORED
AREA TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES AS OF THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND IS SPREADING SOUTH. LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
A MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MESOSCALE BAND OF
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF OLDHAM COUNTY AND
NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH IS
FAVORED UNTIL IS DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS
LIKELY AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO THE UPSLOPING EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BANK OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AS WINDS TURN FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. THE IDEA OF THIS BAND DEVELOPING HAS
BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE, GIVEN
THE CONTINUED AGREEMENT, HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 3KM
NAM AND THE WRF-NSSL BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTH, INTO SOUTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY WHILE THE I-40
CORRIDOR REMAINS UNDER AN INCH. THAT IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME,
BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD COMPLETELY CEASE BY MIDNIGHT
AT THE VERY LATEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO -7
DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST. WON'T BE SURPRISED IF PARTS OF CIMARRON
COUNTY SEES A WIND CHILL OF -10 DEGREES, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT IT WOULD BE BRIEF.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AND IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY "WARMER" TEMPERATURES, WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REACHING 30 DEGREES.
CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK INTO THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,
BUT STILL LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 17 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AS
LOW AS -5 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT THE MOST POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES LATER IN THE
DAY BRINGING WITH IT SOME MORE SNOW POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS TIME IT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY, THE LREF GUIDANCE GIVES NORTHEASTERN
OCHILTREE, LIPSCOMB, NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, AND BEAVER COUNTIES A 30-
60% CHANCE FOR SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE PANHANDLES, CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLED IN TO THE
PANHANDLES. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0 TO -3 DEGREES IN
THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WITH MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -17 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES TO AROUND -12 DEGREES FOR DALHART, -10 DEGREES FOR
GUYMON, AROUND -6 DEGREES FOR AMARILLO, AND AROUND 0 IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES IF THE
AIRMASS IS COLDER THAN CURRENT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY "WARM" UP ON TUESDAY THANKS TO 10-15 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT GIVEN THE STARTING TEMPERATURES FROM
TUESDAY MORNING, STILL ONLY TALKING ABOUT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID-30S AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT DHT AND GUY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT AMA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL SLOW TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 11 28 14 25 / 20 0 0 10
BEAVER OK 8 26 14 20 / 0 0 10 50
BOISE CITY OK 3 25 9 17 / 0 0 0 40
BORGER TX 12 30 17 25 / 10 0 0 20
BOYS RANCH TX 11 30 14 26 / 20 0 0 10
CANYON TX 11 28 14 25 / 30 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 13 28 15 25 / 10 0 0 10
DALHART TX 4 27 9 22 / 10 0 0 20
GUYMON OK 6 26 12 19 / 0 0 0 50
HEREFORD TX 10 28 13 26 / 40 0 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 11 27 17 22 / 0 0 0 40
PAMPA TX 11 28 15 23 / 0 0 0 20
SHAMROCK TX 13 30 15 26 / 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 15 29 17 27 / 10 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ001-
006-011-016.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ001.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15
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