182
FXUS64 KAMA 191120
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
-WATCHING THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
-THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS LOW
AS -20 FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
FOR THIS ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING AT ANY POINT. IN FACT,
ESPECIALLY BY TOMORROW NIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAY GET DANGEROUSLY
COLD.
BUT TO START THIS MORNING, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
MID MORNING AS PERSISTENT 10-20 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATEST 09Z OBS WITH CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED
IN COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. LOOKING
UPSTREAM IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANALYSIS, THE MAIN
EMBEDDED H500 SUBTLE PERTURBATION IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SOMETIME LATER TODAY. DOWNSTREAM OF SAID PERTURBATION, CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLES, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE JUST
ABOUT 10-20% WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SAID CLOUD COVER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE
TEENS.
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, THE MAIN H500
ANEMIC PERTURBATION WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. LATEST 19/00-06Z HI-RES MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF GOOD H850-700 VERTICAL
VELOCITIES IN-CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS OF LIFT
WITHIN SAID PERTURBATION. THE MAIN CONCERN IN QUESTION WILL BE
THE DEPTH OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS
MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT, BUT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE
DGZ AS THE MAIN LIFT MOVES THROUGH IS POSSIBLE, A CORRIDOR OF 1-2"
WILL BE POSSIBLE, FAVORING THE NE PANHANDLES NEAR THE BEST AREAS
OF LIFT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SHORT TERM MODEL DATA TO SEE IF
PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SNOW. THIS AREA OF SNOW
WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASING
TO A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES AT MOST.
AS PERTURBATION EXITS AND SKIES CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHER ALBEDO SURFACES FROM FRESH SNOW COVER AND A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONG H850-700 CAA, TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
PLUMMET. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM FIVE BELOW ZERO TO 9
ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE AS COLD AS
-20, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MECCARIELLO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT, WE WILL
FINALLY GET OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE GOING LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO REACHING THE 50S BY FRIDAY
OF THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN
HIGH AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL PATTERN THAT BROUGHT US THE COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLIER WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST. AFTER THE MAIN H500
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL LATER THIS WEEK, THE PATTERN COULD
RETURN TO BECOMING SOMEWHAT ACTIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE GET TO THAT TIMEFRAME.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NW AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-15 KTS. VCSH CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGUY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 27 14 23 4 / 0 10 10 20
BEAVER OK 27 14 19 -3 / 0 20 60 10
BOISE CITY OK 26 9 15 -3 / 0 10 40 10
BORGER TX 30 17 23 5 / 0 10 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 29 15 24 3 / 0 0 10 20
CANYON TX 28 13 23 5 / 0 0 10 20
CLARENDON TX 28 15 23 8 / 0 10 10 20
DALHART TX 26 9 20 -3 / 0 0 30 10
GUYMON OK 27 13 18 -3 / 0 20 50 10
HEREFORD TX 28 13 23 4 / 0 0 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 27 17 20 2 / 0 10 50 10
PAMPA TX 27 15 21 4 / 0 10 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 29 16 23 7 / 0 10 20 10
WELLINGTON TX 29 17 24 9 / 0 10 10 20
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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