365
FXUS64 KAMA 200920
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -5.
- SNOWFALL WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
LIKELY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO -10 TO -25
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PANHANDLES DUE TO
THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
OVERCAST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLOUD COVER IS AIDING IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. WIND CHILLS COULD STILL DROP BELOW ZERO, BUT DO NOT THINK
THEY WILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT NEEDS TO BE CANCELLED SOONER THAN THE EXPIRATION
TIME.
WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL LIKELY START IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST
EARLY BEFORE MESOSCALE LIFT STARTS TO FACTOR INTO THE SNOW RATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THAT FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SURFACE LIFT TO
AID IN GENERATING HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES H700 VERTICAL VELOCITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
WHERE THESE FEATURES OVERLAP. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THESE
FEATURES TO OVERLAP REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES. THIS IS THE AREA THAT HAS THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR 1
INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GOING FOR 1 TO
2.5 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA. THANKFULLY, THE AREA OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD NOT STAY IN ONE PLACE AS IT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TOTALS HIGHER THAN 4-5 INCHES IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT,
ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT OR SO ACCORDING TO THE 20/01Z NBM. JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO
NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL NOTE IT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
EXPANSIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LATER ON TODAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE
INCREASE IN MORE WIDESPREAD 1 INCH OR HIGHER TOTALS. SNOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ANOTHER SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. H850
TEMPERATURES REACHING AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO 16 CELSIUS TONIGHT.
ALONG WITH THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR, CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLIER
LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED GIVEN ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK FROM THE SNOWFALL EARLIER IN
THE DAY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TOMORROW
HAPPENED ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE TEMPERATURES DROPPED WELL BELOW
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES ALSO WERE MUCH
COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THAT BEING SAID, HAVE COOLED
DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL NOTE THEY MAY NEED
TO GO EVEN COLDER. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES THAT COLD, IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE WIND CHILL
TO DROP CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE. CURRENT LOWEST
WIND CHILL VALUES DROP BELOW MINUS 10 FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE NORTH DROPPING BELOW MINUS 20. HAVE UPGRADED TO EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THAT FAR SOUTH. BE
PREPARED FOR THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BY BUNDLING UP IF
HAVING TO GO OUTSIDE ON TUESDAY MORNING!
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL AID IN BRINGING BACK WAA TO THE PANHANDLES. EVEN THOUGH H850
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THE SNOWPACK AND THE
COLD START TO THE MORNING MAY KEEP PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THANKFULLY, THE LOW
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AND WIND
CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE AIR MASS THAT
LINGERED OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER DAY IN
THE 40S IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS AN H500 TROUGH MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOOKING
LIKELY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL AID IN DEVELOPING A LEESIDE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. ANOTHER
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BUT JUST HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, LATEST RADAR WAS DEPICTING A WEEK ECHO RETURN
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THIS RETURN COULD
CREATE BRIEF SNOW FLURRIES NEAR KDHT, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMAL. OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW, WITH KGUY MOST
LIKELY SEEING IMPACTS AROUND 16Z ALBEIT WITH LOW CHANCES OF AN
EARLY START. THIS SNOW WILL MOVE DOWN WITH FRONT, WHICH WILL
CREATE IMPACTS AT KDHT AND KAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME, DO LOOK FOR TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS WITH CHANCES OF GOING DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 21 0 36 22 / 50 30 0 0
BEAVER OK 19 -6 36 17 / 80 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 14 -6 39 18 / 60 0 0 0
BORGER TX 22 1 38 22 / 70 20 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 22 1 38 18 / 50 20 0 0
CANYON TX 22 2 36 21 / 40 30 0 0
CLARENDON TX 22 1 37 21 / 40 40 0 0
DALHART TX 18 -6 36 15 / 60 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 17 -6 37 18 / 80 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 23 -1 36 21 / 40 30 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 20 -3 34 19 / 80 20 0 0
PAMPA TX 20 -1 36 22 / 60 30 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 24 1 36 18 / 50 50 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 24 4 36 20 / 40 40 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ004-
005-010.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ001>014-016>018-317.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001>003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11
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