561
FXUS64 KAMA 031136
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
536 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 70 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
IT'S GOING TO BE FLAT OUT WINDY TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW,
EVEN FOR PANHANDLE STANDARDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO COME IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
COLORADO PLATEAU, SENDING ~100KT 500MB FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. WHILE THE TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS
25-35 MPH SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS, PLACEMENT UNDER THE RIGHT-
EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER TO MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD PROVIDE
THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM NECESSARY TO MIX DOWN 50-60 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MIXING ISN'T QUITE AS
DEEP, WIND GUSTS MAY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. AFTER
FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING, THESE ARID WINDS WILL USHER IN
SINGLE DIGIT TO NEAR ZERO DEW PTS, ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO PLUMMET BELOW 10% FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS
COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY LEAD TO
HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY.
WINDS STAY BREEZY AT 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD TEMPORARILY SUBSIDE. A FAR
STRONGER SURGE OF WINDS ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE 35-45 MPH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS, WHILE A STING JET OFF
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR PAINT A CONCERNING PICTURE OF
THE HIGH-END POTENTIAL TOMORROW, SUGGESTING GUSTS UP TO 75-80 MPH
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. EVEN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO
TRANSPORT AT LEAST 60 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY (50-90% PROBABILITIES FOR 60 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES).
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WINDS, A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY RAIN, ALTHOUGH STRONGER
CAA WOULD POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN AT
TIMES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE OF LITTLE TO
NO CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THIS
LIGHT PRECIP IS WHAT LENDS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND GUSTS DESPITE
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS IT WILL HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS WHEN
IT FALLS THROUGH DRIER AIR NEAR THE SFC. WHETHER THE PRECIP
DEVELOPS OR NOT, THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR
GUSTS TO EXCEED 70 MPH.
WINDS FINALLY RELENT OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO THE
NORTHEAST, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND MIXING OF
HIGHER GUSTS TO GRADUALLY END. MOISTURE WILL VACATE THE REGION AS
WELL, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WED-THU IN THE WAKE
OF TUESDAY'S PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER, LEADING TO A BRIEF WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE SIT SOUTH OF A PASSING TROUGH,
AIDING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ENHANCING THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ATOP THE PANHANDLES. BREEZY DAYS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY WHEN THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-70%) FOR GUSTS >40MPH
TO MATERIALIZE. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, PULLING A
COLD FRONT AND MARGINALLY IMPROVED MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, BUT VARY DRASTICALLY ON MOISTURE CONTENT. IF
PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE COOLING AIRMASS COULD
SUPPORT A RAIN-SNOW MIX ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME (~20% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP).
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CREATING IFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD, BUT BREEZY WINDS
WILL RAMP UP AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 25-35 MPH, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40-50 KTS AT TIMES FROM
18-00Z. WINDS STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT 15-25 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
HARREL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. 25-35 MPH SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL HELP PULL IN VERY DRY AIR FROM NM, DROPPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10% THIS AFTERNOON. RFTIS OF
6-8 ARE LOOKING TO BE MORE COMMON AS A RESULT ACROSS THE WEST,
WITH 3-5S FURTHER EAST. FUELS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES.
VERY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY,
HINGING ON MOISTURE CONTENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DON'T LOOK TO DROP MUCH LOWER THAN 30%, MAKING FIRE STARTS LESS
LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF A FIRE CAN
START THOUGH, OR IS ALREADY ONGOING FROM TODAY, NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 35-45 MPH, GUSTING 60-70 MPH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLES WOULD AID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 76 36 54 29 / 0 0 40 0
BEAVER OK 73 36 51 25 / 0 0 40 0
BOISE CITY OK 70 32 48 22 / 0 30 50 0
BORGER TX 78 38 55 30 / 0 0 40 0
BOYS RANCH TX 76 35 56 27 / 0 10 40 0
CANYON TX 75 35 55 29 / 0 0 40 0
CLARENDON TX 78 39 56 32 / 0 0 20 0
DALHART TX 71 31 51 23 / 0 20 40 0
GUYMON OK 74 34 50 25 / 0 10 40 0
HEREFORD TX 75 35 56 27 / 0 0 40 0
LIPSCOMB TX 71 38 52 29 / 0 10 40 10
PAMPA TX 75 37 51 29 / 0 0 40 0
SHAMROCK TX 75 38 56 31 / 0 20 30 0
WELLINGTON TX 78 39 59 33 / 0 20 20 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>004-
006>015-017>020-317.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001-006-011-016.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ001>020-317.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ002-007-012-017.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ001.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OKZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ002.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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