438
FXUS64 KAMA 032149
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 70 MPH.
- ACTIVE PATTERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, WITH ~100 KNOT H5 JET ADVANCING THROUGH NM INTO
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS JET STREAK IS NOTED IN THE
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR CHANNEL AS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLES
ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST. A LARGE AREA OF DUST IS ALSO SHOWING UP
ON THE GOES DUST RGB FROM NEAR SANTA FE NM TO ROSWELL TO EL PASO,
MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. BASED ON UPSTREAM VISIBILITY, HAVE
ISSUED A DUST ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER (AND INCREASE IN DUST) WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS AS MIXING BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z, AND IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
GUSTS TO EXCEED 55 MPH (40-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH
FROM BOISE CITY TO BOOTLEG). CHANCE FOR HIGH GUSTS OVER 55 MPH
DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTEND DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUD
COVER AND SUB- OPTIMAL TIMING OF UPPER JET FEATURES. THAT SAID,
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
A SFC LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS. THIS WILL
STILL SUPPORT STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 25 MPH TO NEAR 35 MPH
BETWEEN NOW AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH AS FAR EAST AS AMARILLO, SO WILL
EXTEND WARNING TO POTTER AND RANDAL COUNTIES. THE DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT WILL MIX DOWN VERY DRY AND WARM AIR LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80, WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE VERY FAR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS STAY HIGHER NEAR A DRYLINE. HAVE
CONTINUED WIND PRODUCTS FOR TODAY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS. RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR INFORMATION
ON FIRE WEATHER, SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH THE MAIN CENTER
AXIS CROSSING THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TOMORROW. A VERY
STRONG 110-120KT H5 JET WILL ROUND THE BASED OF THE TROUGH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH KS WITH A VERY STRONG 55-65KT LOW LEVEL JET
FORMING ON THE BACKSIDE OVER WESTERN KS INTO THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT AS A STING JET-LIKE FEATURE HELPS MIX
WINDS DOWN IN SPITE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE (70%+) FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST FROM
BOISE CITY TO DALHART, WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE AREAS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ZONES TODAY (NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE CWA), WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE DUST POTENTIAL AS THERE ARE
PLENTY OF SOURCE REGIONS FROM SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM, NOT
TO MENTION LOCAL SOURCES WHICH MAY BE IN PLAY GIVEN HOW RECENT
PRECIP WAS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
NOTE: THE MORNING PERIOD MAY SEE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE LEADING
JET EDGE ALONG WITH COLD CORE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO KEEP THE NEAR SURFACE DRY, BUT
HINT AT ENOUGH COOLING TO MOISTEN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 800MB TO
600MB, WITH POCKETS OF MOISTURE ABOVE 600MB. THIS AND THE FACT
THAT THAT SAME LAYER IS MOSTLY BELOW 0C SUGGEST EVEN SOME SNOW MAY
TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. THE DRY AND RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING,
AND OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT (20-30% FOR MORE THAN
0.25"). ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY HELP MIX STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AND SOME VERY LIMITED SHALLOW INSTABILITY MAY FURTHER
SUPPORT THIS. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER AT THIS TIME, BUT THERE
IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IF MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE IS
REALIZED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
AN ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH AND WARM RETURN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG
WITH INCREASED WINDS. A SYSTEM GOING INTO SATURDAY LOOK MORE
PROMISING FOR PRECIP IN THE AREA, NOT TO EXCLUDE SNOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS. ONSET FOR THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 20Z, TO
AROUND 01Z WHEN GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH (~40% CHANCE DHT, 10%
CHANCE KGUY & KAMA). SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO RESTRICT
VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SEEING
VISIBILITY BELOW MVFR, SO HAVE KEPT VFR FOR NOW. FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE BEFORE COMING BACK WITH A
VENGEANCE TOMORROW MORNING AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 60 MPH FOR ALL SITES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH MAX GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 70MPH BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (~75% CHANCE > 65MPH AT DHT, 40% CHANCE GUY & AMA). MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW CLOUDS BUILD IN BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ALSO MAY
LEAD TO SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. THIS PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION. BLOWING DUST WILL BE THE BIGGER CONCERN
TOMORROW FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP STAYS UNDER
0.1".
WARD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST MON MAR 3 2025
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE FORECAST, GUSTING UP
TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS WILL HELP PULL IN
VERY DRY AIR FROM NM ALONG WITH DUST, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10% THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCING VISIBILITY.
RFTIS OF 6-8 ARE LOOKING TO BE MORE COMMON AS A RESULT ACROSS THE
WEST, WITH 3-5S FURTHER EAST. THE FOG THIS MORNING MAY HELP REDUCE
PROBABILITY OF IGNITION ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES,
BUT IF A FIRE GETS GOING IN THE WEST, RECENT PRECIP PROBABLY WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT HIGHLY ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS WHICH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESPITE COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DON'T LOOK TO DROP
MUCH LOWER THAN 30%, MAKING FIRE STARTS LESS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF A FIRE CAN START THOUGH, OR IS
ALREADY ONGOING FROM TODAY, NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH, GUSTING
60-70 MPH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES WOULD AID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST ERCS OVERLAP FIRE EFFECTIVE WINDS.
WARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 77 36 54 29 / 0 10 60 0
BEAVER OK 75 36 51 25 / 0 0 40 0
BOISE CITY OK 71 32 48 22 / 0 50 60 0
BORGER TX 83 38 55 30 / 0 10 60 0
BOYS RANCH TX 77 35 56 27 / 0 40 60 0
CANYON TX 77 35 55 29 / 0 0 60 0
CLARENDON TX 79 39 56 32 / 0 0 40 0
DALHART TX 72 31 51 23 / 0 50 60 0
GUYMON OK 75 34 50 25 / 0 10 60 0
HEREFORD TX 77 35 56 27 / 0 10 60 0
LIPSCOMB TX 73 38 52 29 / 0 0 40 10
PAMPA TX 77 37 51 29 / 0 0 50 0
SHAMROCK TX 77 38 56 31 / 0 10 20 0
WELLINGTON TX 79 39 59 33 / 0 20 20 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-006-
007-011-012-016-017.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ001>004-
006>008.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-002-
006-007-011-012-016-017.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ005-009>020-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ006-011>020-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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