675
FXUS64 KAMA 041708 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
- WIDESPREAD STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 70 MPH.
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS THIS MORNING
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER TYPES TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.
THE FIRST OF WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
THANKFULLY, WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 30 MPH OR LESS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR
AT THE SURFACE FOR TODAY. ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR, HIGHER
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN REACHING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
ALSO MOVE IN. WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEING AS STRONG AS IT
IS, THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. WITH THE COLD CORE LOW MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING, JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE IN PLACE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL
IS THAT LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. IF SNOW IS ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, SNOW WILL BE VERY
MUCH ON THE WET SIDE WITH SLRS AROUND 5 TO 1 AND THE RATES WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVY AS THE MESOSCALE LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
STRONG. AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH THE LATEST 04/00Z
HREF PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF
SNOW (BUT THAT IS USING A 10 TO 1 SLR). CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IF IT DOES OCCUR SO NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE IF SNOW DOES REACH DOWN TO THE SURFACE, GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WOULD BE LIKELY AS WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG OUT OF
THE NORTH AND THE SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO BRIEF, BLIZZARD LIKE, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS
MORNING. ANY SNOW POTENTIAL SHOULD END BY MID MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AT THE SURFACE. FOR OTHER AREAS, RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE A LOT OF
MESOSCALE DYNAMICS AND THERE ARE A FEW AGGRESSIVE MODELS THAT DO
SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE PRESENT
TODAY. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY SWITCHING WINDS
FROM OUT OF THE WEST TO OUT OF THE NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH
WINDS AT H700 COULD BE UPWARDS OF 70 TO POTENTIALLY 80 KTS BASED
ON THE MORE WINDY SOLUTIONS WITH WINDS AT H850 UPWARDS OF 60 TO 65
KTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE DAMAGING WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
STARTING WITH THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (OVER 70 PERCENT) FOR MOST OF,
IF NOT ALL OF, THE PANHANDLES TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH
TODAY. WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, THAT WOULD AID IN BRINGING DOWN THESE VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75 MPH. WITH WINDS OVER PERFORMING
OVER FORECAST YESTERDAY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS TODAY, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL (10 TO 15 PERCENT) FOR PEAK
GUSTS TO REACH 80 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THIS POTENTIAL, A
HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT FOR TODAY, FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT POTENTIAL, SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DECREASE
NEAR SUNRISE.
AFTER A BUSY FEW DAYS WEATHER WISE, WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY BE
QUIET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE BEFORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. THURSDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX POTENTIALLY MOVES OVER THE CWA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL HIGHEST
GUSTS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT THE WEST MAY ONCE AGAIN
GET CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE 50 MPH GUSTS AS CLOUD COVER MAY CLEAR
OUT CLOSER TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE. DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY
ONCE AGAIN BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MAY ARISE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT H500 TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND AND
BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD FRONT
USHERS IN COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG WITH TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR PUSH WILL GREATLY
IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPES, LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION BANDS, AND
ANY RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS. THAT SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE 60S AND 70S AFTER BEING IN THE 40S TO 50S ON
SATURDAY.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS AT AMA AND GUY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE
VFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT DHT. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 33 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN AND BY EARLY
MORNING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE DOWN AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS IN PLAY TODAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE
THERE TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 TO POTENTIALLY 70 MPH WITH 20 FT
WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OR RAIN
AND/OR SNOW WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING
AT SOME POINT TODAY, WHICH MAY GREATLY LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY ABOVE 25 PERCENT, THAT WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE THREAT.
GIVEN THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ONGOING WILDFIRE IN THE WARNING
AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND THIS
IS ALSO THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST ERC VALUES. THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION FALLS.
AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY ARISE ON THURSDAY AS BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO DROP
DOWN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 28 58 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 25 57 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 22 56 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 29 60 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 27 61 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 28 59 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 31 59 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 22 57 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 24 56 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 27 61 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 28 56 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 29 57 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 31 59 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 33 60 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15
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