597
FXUS64 KAMA 042021
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
221 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
-BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IF GRASSES ARE RECEPTIVE.
-RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, THEY
WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING
THROUGH ARIZONA AT THE SAME TIME. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OR PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OR
THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW. BUT, MANY OF THEM MOVE THE UPPER
LOW ON A TRACK THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ENOUGH
COLD AIR WITH IT SO THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD THEN BE RECOVERY DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD BE
DICTATED ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE RECEIVE OR DON'T RECEIVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS AT AMA AND GUY ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO THE
VFR RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT DHT. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 33 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN AND BY EARLY
MORNING WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE DOWN AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2025
THURSDAY MAY BE ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY AS WINDS PICK UP INTO THE 25 TO
35 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO BELOW
15 PERCENT. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE IF ERC'S RECOVER
SOME FROM THE RECENT RAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 29 59 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 25 57 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 23 56 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 30 60 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 27 61 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 28 60 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 32 60 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 23 58 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 25 57 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 27 62 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 29 57 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 29 58 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 32 60 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 33 61 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15
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