381
FXUS64 KAMA 051125
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
525 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
- BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST ON
THURSDAY WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND FIRE
WEATHER TO THE REGION HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. WITH THE SYSTEM WELL OFF TO
THE EAST, TODAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST
TWO DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SET UP SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES WITH ITS INFLUENCE BEING FELT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. FURTHER EAST, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY, SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM, THAT WILL BRING FURTHER
IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND, WILL START TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS ON THURSDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 ON WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY AS A JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN
WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF A LEESIDE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY (ADDITIONAL
DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). THANKFULLY, CURRENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS
(50-60 KTS AT H700) MAY REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND GUST
POTENTIAL AND THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 55 MPH OR GREATER
GUSTS REFLECT THAT WITH ONLY HAVING A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES FROM TEXLINE TO KENTON (HIGHER
PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN NORTHEASTERN NM). ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR
FOR THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WHICH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MAY BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT MAY REMAIN BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A LLJ SETS
UP WITH WINDS PROGGED TO BE 40 TO 55 KTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AREA WIDE.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
AN H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE PLAINS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN BEFORE THIS SYSTEM HAS
IMPACTS ON THE PANHANDLES, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SPRING DAY
FOR OUR AREA OF THE COUNTRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. BREEZY
WEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING AT THIS POINT SO IT MAY COME
IN QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
BY THE TIME PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE REGION, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE
05/00Z LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH ALL 4 CLUSTERS
BRINGING IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL TO THE REGION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
IS DECENT CONSISTENCY THAT BRINGS THE HIGHER TOTALS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE, BUT CLUSTER 4 (WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT OF
THE TOTAL LREF GUIDANCE, THE LOWEST OF THE 4 CLUSTERS) DOES
INDICATE THAT THE HIGHER TOTALS MAY STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. AS WE KNOW, THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH MESOSCALE
DETAILS WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE WHERE ANY HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL SET UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL ARE
INCREASING BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. NEWEST NBM GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE (50 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SNOWFALL OF 1
INCH OR GREATER FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. WILL MAKE A NOTE THAT THE NBM PROBABILITIES MAY BE A
BIT ON THE LOW SIDE, AS THE NBM REALLY STRUGGLES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON DAYS WHERE THERE IS PROLONGED CLOUD COVER, ONGOING
PRECIPITATION, AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE OTHER BLENDED GUIDANCE
IS LOWER THAN THE CURRENT NBM.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO
RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY STARTING AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN OVER EACH TERMINAL DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED MAR 5 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ARISE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS RECENT RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, ERC
VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 50TH TO 80TH
PERCENTILE ON THURSDAY. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RFTI
VALUES AROUND 3 TO 5 ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 60 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 58 33 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 57 35 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 61 39 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 62 38 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 61 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 61 37 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 58 34 72 33 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 58 35 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 63 39 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 58 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 58 38 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 61 35 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 62 36 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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